Devon Energy (DVN) Update - Mar 29

[dan_s]

This will only lower my valuation about 50 cents. Plus, when they update guidance during their Q1 press release I expect them to raise their full-year production guidance. The merger with WPX Energy closed on January 7th. It takes a few months for "the dust to settle" after a merger of this size. As I gain more confidence in my forecast model, I will raise the multiple used to value DVN. My current 5.5X multiple is too low for a company of this size and quality.

KEY MESSAGES
Devon provided guidance for the first quarter and full-year 2021, adjusted for weather and an asset sale
Severe winter weather is estimated to reduce first-quarter production by 8 percent
Guidance excludes WPX results prior to the acquisition close date of Jan. 7, 2021
Sale of Wind River asset in Wyoming is expected to reduce 2021 oil production by 2,000 barrels per day

OKLAHOMA CITY, March 29, 2021 (GLOBE NEWSWIRE) -- Devon Energy Corp. (NYSE: DVN) today provided guidance for the first quarter and full-year 2021 that incorporates the operational impact from recent winter weather and a minor asset sale. The company has restored its production to pre-storm levels and expects the weather-related downtime to be confined to the first quarter.

First-quarter production is estimated to be reduced by 8 percent due to the impact of severe winter weather. Adjusting for this downtime, Devon expects oil production in the first quarter of 261,000 to 265,000 barrels per day and total production of 485,000 to 499,000 oil-equivalent barrels per day. The company’s guidance also excludes WPX results prior to the acquisition close date of Jan. 7, 2021, limiting production by an incremental 3 percent for the first quarter.

“I would like to personally thank the team for their hard work and dedication preparing for and safely responding to the unprecedented severe weather conditions,” said Rick Muncrief, president and CEO. “With our operations fully restored to pre-storm levels, we are well positioned to execute on our disciplined capital plan, accelerate free cash flow generation and return increasing amounts of cash to shareholders.”

Per-unit expenses are expected to increase by approximately 5 percent in the first quarter as a result of the weather impact across Devon’s operations.

The company’s full-year 2021 guidance was also adjusted for the sale of the company’s Wind River asset in Wyoming which closed on March 3, 2021. This divesture is expected to reduce oil production by approximately 2,000 barrels per day for the full-year 2021.

Additional details of Devon’s forward-looking guidance for the first quarter and full-year 2021 are available on the company’s website at www.devonenergy.com.