Stifel's new price targets for the Sweet 16 - April 1

[dan_s]

Here are Stifel's adjusted price targets for the Sweet 16 companies that they follow.

In their Top Picks for 2021 (note that they are all in my "Elite Eight")
$33 for CLR
$43 for DVN
$109 for EOG
$121 for FANG
$197 for PXD
$100 for XEC

Others that they follow
$41 for CPE < PT increased $20 since their last update
$69 for LPI
$58 for PDCE
$6.60 for CRK < Lowered from $8.20 PT last month. See my notes below.
$11 for RRC
$16 for TALO

Stifel's price targets for some of my other favorites
$33 for MTDR
$14 for NOG
$18 for SM
$13 for BSM
$22 for MNRL
$21 for VNOM

I took a hard look at Comstock Resources (CRK). I have lowered the multiple of operating cash flow used to value it to just 3X, so my valuation goes from $11.50 to $9.25, but I can't figure out why the Wall Street Gang is so bearish on this one. Operating cash flow was $2.12/share in 2020.
> CRK reported a nice increase in production from Q3 to Q4 2021.
> At the midpoint of their production guidance, production s/b up 9.4% YOY and operating CFPS should be $3.25.
> They should generate over $200 million of free cash flow from operations
> They have lots of Tier One leasehold in the Haynesville
> Small negative is that they have ~40% of their 2021 ngas hedged at $2.54.

[mkarpoff]

CRK is getting killed as part of universal overflow hate for the Dallas Cowboys. Go Giants.

[dan_s]

You might be right because the numbers definitely support a higher stock price for CRK. I grew up in St. Louis. As a Cardinal fan (before they left for Arizona) I too hated the Cowboys. They now have a grossly overpaid quarterback.

CRK is up 29.5% YTD, so "getting killed" may be a bit of an overstatement.