lpi

lpi

Postby mkarpoff » Wed Jun 02, 2021 11:52 am

LPI is pushing up against your latest fv. Do you recommend we holld, or swap it for something with greater perceived upside?
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Re: lpi

Postby dan_s » Wed Jun 02, 2021 3:21 pm

My valuation of LPI is based on lower oil prices. Today I like XEC, CLR, OVV, and PDCE more.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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Re: lpi

Postby KGardiner » Thu Jun 03, 2021 6:57 am

Dan, could you clarify what is implied by "My valuation of LPI is based on lower oil prices."

Does it mean due to hedges LPI has less upside as oil rises, relative to XEC, CLR, OVV and PDCE?
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Re: lpi

Postby KGardiner » Thu Jun 03, 2021 7:52 am

Follow up question.

Laredo has an estimated PE of 2 using 2022 earnings estimate, and 5.5 using 2021 earnings.
Is your favoring of XEC,CLR, OVV and PDCE more than LPI due to how far LPI has moved in the past 2 months?
If so, I agree LPI is likely to have a pullback soon.
However, over the next 2 years it seems like it has a lot of upside.
The low current and future PE, and the ability to pay off their debt in less than a year using FCF seem like strong positives to me.
Am I missing something important?

Thanks
Kevin
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Re: lpi

Postby KGardiner » Thu Jun 03, 2021 8:27 am

One additional concern with LPI.
Morningstar in their May 12th analysis was concerned that Laredo has not learned their lesson on well spacing, and thus downgraded them from $57 to a fair value of $33.
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Re: lpi

Postby dan_s » Thu Jun 03, 2021 8:57 am

All of my stock valuations are based on the oil and gas prices that I have listed in numerous podcast.

Download my forecast model for LPI from the EPG website and go to the bottom to see the oil, gas, and NGL prices I used to value it, Remember that the commodity prices are net of regional differences and cash settlements on their hedges.

I AM USING A LOW MULTIPLE TO VALUE LPI, SO AS ACTUAL RESULTS CONFIRM MY MODEL ASSUMPTIONS THE VALUATION WILL GO UP.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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Re: lpi

Postby KGardiner » Thu Jun 03, 2021 9:05 am

Will do, Thanks.
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