EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - June 16

[dan_s]

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending June 11, 2021

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.3 million barrels per day during the week ending June 11, 2021 which was 412,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 92.6% of their operable capacity last week. < This is very bullish and should keep crude oil inventories on steady decline.
Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 9.9 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.1 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.7 million barrels per day last week, up by 108,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.3 million barrels per day, 5.9% less than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 1.1 million barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 371,000 barrels per day.

> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 7.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 466.7 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 2.0 million barrels last week and are about 0% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories decreased while blending components inventories increased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 1.0 million barrels last week and are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels last week and are about 13% below the five year average for this time of year.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 4.6 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.3 million barrels a day, up by 17.4% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.1 million barrels a day, up by 19.3% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.0 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 24.8% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 86.8% compared with the same four week period last year.

[dan_s]

AEGIS notes

Oil Prices were up five minutes following the announcement, to $72.36, from $72.10 just before 9:30am. $72.86 at the time of this post.

Inventories for the US are now at a deficit of 71.391 MBbls to last year and a deficit of 27.01 MBbls to the five-year average. < VERY BULLISH

[dan_s]

LONDON (Reuters) -Oil gained for a fifth day on Wednesday, climbing towards $75 a barrel to its highest since April 2019, supported by a recovery in demand from the pandemic and a drop in U.S. crude inventories.

The American Petroleum Institute reported U.S. crude inventories fell 8.5 million barrels, two market sources said, more than analysts forecast. [API/S] Official Energy Information Administration figures are out at 1430 GMT. [EIA/S]

Brent crude was up 15 cents, or 0.2%, at $74.14 a barrel by 1330 GMT, and earlier reached $74.73, the highest since April 2019. U.S. crude slipped 2 cents to $72.10 having hit $72.83, the highest since October 2018.

"Demand growth is outpacing supply and will continue to do so over the coming months," said Stephen Brennock of oil broker PVM.

Brent has risen 44% this year, supported by supply cuts led by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries and allies, known as OPEC+, and a demand recovery expected to gather pace in the second half. [OPEC/M] [IEA/M]

Despite some easing of last year's record output cuts made when the pandemic took hold, OPEC+ is still withholding millions of barrels of daily supply from the market.

"Even non-energy traders are placing bets that oil prices will continue to rise," said Edward Moya, senior market analyst at brokerage OANDA.

Executives from major oil traders said on Tuesday they expected prices to remain above $70 and demand to return to pre-pandemic levels in the second half of 2022.

At the same time, the prospect of an imminent rise in Iranian oil exports looks less likely, analysts said. Indirect talks between Tehran and Washington on resuming the 2015 nuclear accord resumed in Vienna on Saturday.

"Ongoing efforts to revive the Iranian nuclear deal have so far failed to bear any fruits," PVM's Brennock said.