Oil & Gas Prices - July 4

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dan_s
Posts: 34463
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Oil & Gas Prices - July 4

Post by dan_s »

Trading Economics:
"Brent crude futures gained more than 1% to $113 a barrel on Monday, as concerns over reduced supply outweighed fears that a global economic slowdown will lower demand. Output from 10 OPEC members fell by 100K bpd to 28.52 million bpd in June, off their pledged increase of about 275K bpd, a Reuters survey showed. Also, Libya's exports have dropped to between 365K bpd and 409K bpd, down about 865K bpd compared to normal levels. Moreover, about 130K bpd of Norway’s daily oil output will be lost due to a planned strike by Norwegian energy sector workers. Oil prices are up almost 50% this year, due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, strong consumer demand and weak supply."

"Brent crude oil is expected to trade at 115.50 USD/BBL by the end of this quarter, according to Trading Economics global macro models and analysts expectations. Looking forward, we estimate it to trade at 127.95 in 12 months time.
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OilPrice.com
Crude oil prices should stay in the triple digits, Kpler’s head of Sweet Crude Analysis Matt Smith told Yahoo Finance.

There won’t be a continued downward pressure on oil, according to Smith.

“I don’t think that we’re going to see continued downward pressure on oil. I think what we’re seeing in the last couple of weeks in the oil market is this selloff as oil has got swept up in broader market sentiment as we’ve seen a selloff in equities, etc. It’s a risk appetite thing,” Smith told Yahoo Finance.

Instead, Smith sees crude oil prices supported by OPEC, because while they are saying they continue to put more oil onto the market, they are failing to boost their exports. In fact, as Smith points out, we’ve seen Saudi Arabia’s exports drop in recent months.

So while OPEC is saying they are producing more, “We’re not seeing those barrels actually hitting the market. We’re not seeing an increase in terms of those exports.”

Smith also points to forecasts of lower crude oil production out of Russia by the end of the year—a support for higher oil prices.


“This is very much a supply-side story, and we should remain above triple digits here.”

Crude oil prices were rallying on Friday ahead of the long weekend in the United States, with WTI crude up 2.73% on the day at $108.70. The high crude oil and gasoline prices in the United States pose a problem for the Biden Administration, which has proposed numerous strategies for lowering crude oil and gasoline prices--so far to no avail.

The average gallon of gasoline in the United States is still up $.171 over the last month, and up $1.719 per gallon from a year ago.

By Julianne Geiger for Oilprice.com
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34463
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - July 4

Post by dan_s »

Brent dipped to $71.65 on 12-1-2021.
Just seven months & three days later Brent trading at $113.54 on 7-4-2022. < Wild commodity price swings make my job tough.

There is definitely risks that oil could go lower and that it could go a lot higher. The NYMEX strip is not a forecast. IMO FEAR of a recession is the only thing holding down the price of oil. OECD Petroleum Inventories can't keep falling, so we actually need to lower oil demand soon to avoid rationing.

What I can tell you with some certainty is that the upstream oil & gas companies that I follow are not trading anywhere close to where they should be based on $100/bbl oil and $5.00/MMBtu ngas.

If oil pulls back to $71.65, all of our upstream companies would still be profitable.

If ngas stays over $3.00, all of our gassers would still be profitable. BTW they are all going to report STUNNING Q2 results.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34463
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - July 4

Post by dan_s »

Closing Prices:

Trading Economics:
"WTI crude futures gained nearly 2% to $110.54 a barrel on Monday, while trading volumes were curtailed by the US Fourth of July holiday, as concerns over reduced supply outweighed fears that a global economic slowdown will lower demand. Output from 10 OPEC members fell by 100K bpd to 28.52 million bpd in June, off their pledged increase of about 275K bpd, a Reuters survey showed. Also, Libya's exports have dropped to between 365K bpd and 409K bpd, down about 865K bpd compared to normal levels. Moreover, about 130K bpd of Norway’s daily oil output will be lost due to a planned strike by Norwegian energy sector workers. Still, oil prices are up over 50% this year, due to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, strong consumer demand and weak supply."

"The front month Henry Hub gas futures contract gained $0.134 to close at $5.865 per million British thermal units, bouncing back from a three-month low of $5.357 hit on June 30th, as the contract found support from dip buyers and forecasts pointing to hotter weather in the first half of July, which could boost cooling demand. Last week, prices fell 7.9% reflecting rising inventories. The US domestic market has absorbed an additional 2 bcf of natural gas per day since the explosion at Freeport LNG, which is now expected to return to partial operations in October, according to the company. The extra fuel allowed utilities to inject 82 bcf of gas into underground storage last week, according to the EIA, which largely beat median estimates of a 74 bcf build."
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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