EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Sept 1

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dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Sept 1

Post by dan_s »

Working gas in storage was 2,640 Bcf as of Friday, August 26, 2022, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 61 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 228 Bcf less than last year at this time and 338 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,978 Bcf.
At 2,640 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

For the 13 weeks ending 8-26-2022 the total increases were only 6 Bcf over the 5-year average. < Looking at a longer time period gives you a better idea of the supply/demand fundamentals for natural gas.

There are only 11 weeks remaining in the refill season, so there is zero chance of storage coming close to the 5-year average before draws begin in mid-Nov.
My SWAG is that over the next 11 weeks storage will build by 640 Bcf, putting storage at 3,280 Bcf, ~350 Bcf below the 5-year average to begin the winter heating season.

There is no shortage of natural gas in the U.S. TODAY, but the utilities which deliver gas to our homes and businesses are in a bidding war for physical supply. They literally MUST have enough gas in storage to maintain pressure in their supply lines.

Weekly builds over the next six weeks will be larger as the weather gets cooler, but the builds will be compared to higher 5-year average builds. In the northern half of the country furnaces start coming on in mid-October.

Miss La Nina and Old Man Winter will have more control over U.S. natural gas prices. Mr. Putin will be in control of Europe's ngas price.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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