EIA's monthly 941 Report shows that U.S. actual crude oil production for June was 11,816,000 bpd, an increase of 201,000 bpd. < U.S. oil production actually declined in April and May.
That sounds good until you compare it to the U.S. peak oil production of 12,860,000 bpd in November 2019
or even 11,790,000 bpd in November 2021
So, in seven months with a steady increase in active drilling rigs, U.S. oil production has only increased 26,000 bpd.
I went back and looked at EIA's weekly reports for June. They told the market that U.S. oil production was 12,000,000 bpd in June. EIA has been consistently overstating U.S. oil production all year.
My guess is that U.S. oil production will steadily increase thru November. After November it will decline Dec thru Feb, which it does each year because of winter weather, primarily limiting well completions in the Williston Basin and DJ Basin.
Actual U.S. crude oil production for June
Actual U.S. crude oil production for June
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group