Oil & Gas Prices - Sept 12

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dan_s
Posts: 34471
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Oil & Gas Prices - Sept 12

Post by dan_s »

I am travelling today to Myrtle Beach, SC to "educate" ~140 conference attendees on how important fossil fuels are to their standard of living. I will be heading back to Houston on Wednesday.

Opening Prices
> WTI is up $1.44 to $88.23/bbl, and Brent is up $1.66 to $94.50/bbl.
> Natural gas is down -7.6c to $7.92/MMBtu.

AEGIS Notes
Oil

Oil recovered some of the losses from last week to trade near $88/Bbl
> The U.S. Dollar weakened after a long period of relative strength against other major currencies
> Concerns remain about weaker demand as China's strict covid lockdowns persist

The U.S. Treasury announced rough compliance guidelines for capping the price of Russian oil on Friday (BBG, Reuters)
> The guidelines focus on the documentation needed by the private sector to adhere to the program, which is meant to kick in from December as Europe starts to ban Russian crude
> Wally Adeyemo, the deputy secretary of the Treasury, said that Moscow would have no choice but to participate < Someone needs to remind Wally that we are dealing with Putin and he always has a choice.
> “Russia may bluster and say they won’t sell below the capped price, but the economics of holding back oil just doesn’t make sense,” said Adeyemo
> Russian President Vladimir Putin said last week that Moscow would halt shipments to countries that impose the price cap
> Meanwhile, Janet Yellen, asked, “why should they retaliate for an initiative that enables their oil to continue to flow through to world markets at a price that is profitable?”
> It is still unclear when the price cap will be imposed and at what level the price cap it would be set

European nations said they have “serious doubts” about Iran’s commitment to a new nuclear accord after negotiations extending almost 18 months (BBG)
> In response to the most recent demands from Iran, the governments of France, Germany, and the UK released a joint statement on Saturday
> The European governments’ joint statement said, " In light of Iran’s failure to conclude the agreement on the table, we will consult with our international partners on how best to deal with Iran’s continued nuclear escalation”

Natural Gas

Natural gas prices are down 1% in the prompt month contract
> Temperature forecasts have shifted cooler for the lower 48, with temperatures forecast to remain below the 10-year normal during the week, before a rise in temperatures over next weekend
> Production remained strong over the weekend but did not make a new high
> U.S. total power generation fell to a multi-month low this weekend of 459 GW

Regional Energy Access Expansion is the subject of October hearing (Lehigh Valley Live)
> The proposed expansion of the Transco pipeline will extend it from Pennsylvania’s Marcellus Shale into New Jersey and would connect to multiple gas delivery points
> The subject of the October 5 hearing is three environmental permits for the project that is currently under review
> Williams company said the pipeline “will help ease supply constraints affecting customers in Pennsylvania, New Jersey, and Maryland, providing enough natural gas supply to serve approximately 3 million homes”
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
KGardiner
Posts: 110
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:18 pm

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Sept 12

Post by KGardiner »

Does anyone know how much US natural gas demand has risen due to increased fertilizer production?
JBtheBrit
Posts: 60
Joined: Sun Jul 10, 2022 8:23 pm

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Sept 12

Post by JBtheBrit »

@KGardiner - has US Fert production risen ?. I thought the main producers were already going flat out. UAN is one of my biggest equity positions - part of the thesis is that its very expensive and long lead time (2-3 years +) to build new capacity.
KGardiner
Posts: 110
Joined: Mon Feb 08, 2021 5:18 pm

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Sept 12

Post by KGardiner »

Thanks JB!
dan_s
Posts: 34471
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Sept 12

Post by dan_s »

Closing Prices:
> Prompt-Month WTI (Oct 22) was up $0.99 on the day, to settle at $87.78
> Prompt-Month Henry Hub (Oct 22) was up $0.253 on the day, to settle at $8.249
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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