EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Sept 15

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 2,771 Bcf as of Friday, September 9, 2022, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 77 Bcf from the previous week. < 6 Bcf below the 5-year average build of 83 Bcf.
Stocks were 223 Bcf less than last year at this time and 354 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,125 Bcf.
At 2,771 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

So ...
> The deficit to the 5-year average increases.
> There are only 9 weeks left in the refill season.
> Next week's 5-year average build (for week ending Sept 16) is 85 Bcf.

Based on my model, the 2022/2023 winter heating season will begin with 3,276 Bcf in storage mid-November, which will be 376 Bcf below the 5-year average.

Since HH ngas average price for Q3 is now likely to exceed the $8.00/MMBtu price assumed in my models, all of our gassers (AR, CRK, EQT, RRC and SBOW) should report Q3 results that beat my forecasts.