Zoom Meeting in Progress

Zoom Meeting in Progress

Postby mkarpoff » Thu Sep 22, 2022 10:57 am

The Zoom meeting is just about over, but not quite. I have been following this stuff for quite some time, and I guess I should be embarrassed because I have no idea what the two guests said nor what their conclusions were.
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Re: Zoom Meeting in Progress

Postby Fraser921 » Thu Sep 22, 2022 12:49 pm

Review the slides

Conclusion bullish
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Re: Zoom Meeting in Progress

Postby dan_s » Thu Sep 22, 2022 12:51 pm

Conclusions:
Natural gas
> If we have a cold winter, demand for U.S. natural gas will exceed supply and price could go a lot higher.
> If ngas storage is below a TCF at the end of March, it will be difficult if not impossible to refill storage before the 2023/2024 winter arrives. This will keep ngas prices high all next year.
> Ngas in "Salt Storage" is too low to be the needed buffer to get us through supply disruptions. Very few people (including everyone on Team Biden) understand how important our ngas storage and massive distribution system are to our economy and standard of living.
> Everything points to higher demand for ngas (4 to 5 Bcfpd) in 2023. Like Europe, we may need to bring back online a lot of coal-fired power plants.
> Regarding Comstock: I believe Jerry Jones knows that owning a lot of proven gas reserves could become extremely valuable in a world that is going to be very short ngas soon. I do expect the company to add one or two more rigs to their drilling program next year. The tubular shortage is a serious problem today, that may be limiting their D&C program.
> It will have to get very bad for the Feds to shut off LNG exports, but who knows what the Wackos running this country will do next.

Oil
> There is no spare capacity in this world. Most of the OPEC+ countries are now on terminal decline.
> Demand destruction will be necessary. Higher prices or a recession will be needed to rebalance the market.
> Supply chain issues have been and will continue to keep a lid on U.S. oil supply. If you can't get tubulars, you can't complete wells.
> Future SPR draws won't help much and can't keep going much longer anyway. It is already a national security risk.
> Refined product shortages, especially distillates, are a bigger problem than crude oil as of today.

The slides that they spoke from will be on the EPG website soon. I recommend that you go through the slide first before listening to the replay of today's webinar. It helps a lot.
> Thanks to the Green New Deal madness, we don't have enough refining capacity to resolve fuel shortages quickly.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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Re: Zoom Meeting in Progress

Postby dirtdauber » Thu Sep 22, 2022 1:08 pm

<<Future SPR draws won't help much and can't keep going much longer anyway.>>
Besides, OPEC has signaled that they will reduce prodution to render them ineffective.
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