Oil & Gas Prices - Sept 23

Oil & Gas Prices - Sept 23

Postby dan_s » Fri Sep 23, 2022 9:05 am

Opening Prices:
> WTI is down $3.73 to $79.76/bbl, and Brent is down $3.46 to $87.00/bbl.
> Natural gas is down -24.1c to $6.848/MMBtu

AEGIS Notes
Oil


Oil fell 4.5% this morning to the lowest since January
> Crude is still under pressure amid a string of rate hikes from central banks around the world to fight inflation and a stronger dollar
> This week, several countries joined the U.S. in rising interest rates, including the U.K., Norway, and South Africa
> In the macro markets, yields are up, and equities are trading lower
> The U.S. dollar is stronger; the DXY index hit a new 20-year high this morning < The SIGNIFICANT INCREASE in the U.S. dollar (thanks to the crashing Euro) is the primary reason for the decline in oil price. Supply/Demand for oil in the global market is tight and expected to get much tighter this winter.

The EU is reportedly considering a price cap on Russian oil as well as other sanctions in response to Russia's most recent escalation in the conflict with Ukraine (BBG, Reuters)
> EU foreign ministers said that additional sanctions would include "economic and individual" measures at an ad hoc meeting on the sidelines of U.N. talks in New York
> Additionally, three EU diplomats in Brussels said that the new sanctions would be based on the oil price cap agreed by the G7 nations
> The oil cap and other upcoming EU embargoes would likely go into effect in December, said one of the diplomats
> Final sanctions will need to be agreed upon by all EU member states, and the European Commission is expected to make a written proposal next week
MY TAKE: The citizens of Europe will pay a high price for the "Sanctions War" and the misguided leadership that lead to the Paris Climate Accord.

UAE warns that underinvesting in fossil fuels will lead to disaster (BBG)
> The world's failure to invest enough in fossil fuels until cleaner alternatives can fully meet today's energy needs is a "recipe for disaster," according to Sultan Al Jaber, CEO of ADNOC
> He added that the ability of oil producers (OPEC+) to respond to further disruptions in energy supplies is constrained, as spare crude capacity is currently less than 2% of world demand. < The fact is that the cartel's spare capacity is basically zero since the few countries that may have a bit more production upside cannot make up for the steady declines in Nigeria, Angola and several others.

Natural Gas

Natural gas prices are down 3.7% this morning after falling 9% yesterday to a two-month low
> Temperature forecasts have shifted cooler for the next two weeks as the average temperature across the lower-48 begins to decline
> NOAA is watching a disturbance in the Atlantic that is currently forecast to enter the Gulf of Mexico
> The EIA reported a storage build of 103 Bcf yesterday, which brings the total amount of gas in storage to 2,874 Bcf
> This was the largest storage build of 2022, and the second build of more than 100 Bcf

California plans to ban natural gas furnaces and water heaters (BBG)
> The proposal was unanimously approved by the California Air Resources Board on Thursday
> The ban would take place starting in 2030 and would affect all gas-powered space heating and water heating
> The move is part of a broader push by the state to move away from fossil fuels completely by 2045

Texas Railroad Commission changing weatherization rules (S&P)
> Following the winter storm Uri in 2021, the Texas regulatory body mandated that gas producers with an output of 15 Mcf/d or more are designated as “critical” producers
> Pushback from producers is leading to a change in the regulation however, with the minimum output to be designated as a critical producer being increased to 250 Mcf/d
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Sept 23

Postby dan_s » Fri Sep 23, 2022 6:04 pm

Closing Prices:
> Prompt-Month WTI (Nov 22) was down $-4.75 on the day, to settle at $78.74
> Prompt-Month Henry Hub (Oct 22) was down $-0.261 on the day, to settle at $6.828

US dollar strength and lots of geopolitical "noise" is putting pressure on the oil price. HH gas price is a much different market. The U.S. ngas market is under-supplied heading into winter.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Sept 23

Postby Fraser921 » Fri Sep 23, 2022 7:32 pm

> California plans to ban natural gas furnaces and water heaters (BBG)
> The proposal was unanimously approved by the California Air Resources Board on Thursday
> The ban would take place starting in 2030 and would affect all gas-powered space heating and water heating
> The move is part of a broader push by the state to move away from fossil fuels completely by 2045

So a homeowner has to buy a New furnace and heater

More insanity from the numbnuts that created 8.3
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