Northern Oil & Gas (NOG) Update - April 16

[dan_s]

NOG is trading for $13.02 at the time of this post. First Call's price target is $18.40, but it does not include the full impact of the "transformative acquisition" that NOG closed on April 1st.

NOG is now on-track to increase production by more than 50% year-over-year in 2021. Operating cash flow of more than $400 million is derisked by an active hedging program. Their capex program is estimated to be approximately $225 million, so they are going to generate solid free cash flow each quarter.

My valuation of $21/share is based on just 3X 2020 to 2022 annualized operating cash flow per share.

I have posted my updated forecast/valuation model and my profile on the company to the EPG website. Read it carefully.