Oxy

Oxy

Postby Fraser921 » Mon Feb 28, 2022 10:47 am

up 8 %

I was wondering why this name didn't move last week . 1 billion FCF per month and that's with lower prices.

No hedges, printing money here

Up 13 per cent on the day , WOW
Last edited by Fraser921 on Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:56 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Oxy

Postby mkarpoff » Mon Feb 28, 2022 11:16 am

I am keeping an eye on BP. Today's small drop does not fully represent the hit it is going to take when it divests itself of the large position it holds in Rosneft. An opportunity may open up to buy an otherwise strong company. Conversely, if somehow Putin finds a face-saving way to extricate himself from the mess he has created, the Russian energy stocks will be a buy...if one can stand the thought of investing there.
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Re: Oxy

Postby Fraser921 » Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:23 pm

this is how they will spend what they made in jan and feb

http://archive.fast-edgar.com/20220228/AQ2PFQ2CZ2224ZGU222S2Z42UTPAZC22Z242/
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Re: Oxy

Postby Fraser921 » Mon Feb 28, 2022 2:28 pm

How do you raise your target price to 33 when the name is already at 42.80

Wells Fargo Raises Occidental Petroleum Price Target to $33 From $29, Maintains Underweight Rating

Wells Fargo should fire their analyst..looks like a fool, imho
Last edited by Fraser921 on Sun Mar 06, 2022 8:24 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Oxy

Postby Fraser921 » Mon Feb 28, 2022 3:54 pm

The oil producer launched a tender offer Monday to repurchase 15 tranches of notes with maturities ranging from 2023 to 2049. Some of its targeted bonds gained. The $663 million of 4.1% unsecured notes due in 2047 vaulted 5 cents to 92.5 cents on the dollar Monday morning, according to data compiled by Bloomberg.

The cost of West Texas Intermediate crude for April rose to roughly $95 a barrel Monday as tougher sanctions were imposed on Russia following its invasion of Ukraine.

While Houston-based Occidental doesn’t drill or own assets in Ukraine or Russia, Chief Executive Officer Vicki Hollub condemned the “insane and inhumane” actions of Russian President Vladimir Putin.

And even though oil prices remain high, the company does not intend to boost production this year, and any future annual growth will be capped at roughly 5%, Hollub said Hollub said last week during a call to discuss fourth-quarter earnings.

Read more: Occidental Hikes Dividend 1,200% to 13 Cents as Oil Prices Surge

Occidental is focused on cutting debt and regaining its investment-grade status in the medium term, Hollub said on the call. Both Fitch Ratings and S&P Global Ratings give the company the highest junk rating, while Moody’s Investors Service grades it one step lower.

The company expects net debt to fall below $25 billion by end of the first quarter. It ended 2021 with around $28.4 billion of total debt and $2.8 billion of unrestricted cash.

Occidental’s debt buyback includes principal and premium in its purchase price, but excludes accrued and unpaid interest. The offer expires on March 4.

I don’t see Wells Fargo involved
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Re: Oxy

Postby Fraser921 » Fri Mar 04, 2022 1:00 pm

Up 10 per cent

Unhedged pays in a rising market

I think it hits 75
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Re: Oxy- Must read

Postby Fraser921 » Sat Mar 05, 2022 8:39 pm

https://seekingalpha.com/news/3809916-warren-buffetts-berkshire-hathaway-discloses-5b-stake-in-occidental-petroleum

and this

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/03/05/berkshire-hathaway-reveals-5-billion-stake-in-oil-giant-occidental-petroleum.html

In his annual letter to shareholders released less than one week ago, Warren Buffett complained he could “find little that excites us” in the equity market

However a new SEC filing from Friday night revealed that someone at Berkshire Hathaway, either Buffett himself or his portfolio managers, is very excited about Occidental Petroleum.

As of Friday, Berkshire owns 91.2 million common shares of the oil giant. They’re worth $5.1 billion at tonight’s close of $56.15. The stock gained 18% today and 45% this week

Berkshire only owns around 9% of Occidental’s common shares. But it also has warrants to buy another 83.9 million shares at $59.62.

Even though the warrants have not been exercised, for the purposes of the SEC filing trigger they have to be counted, technically putting Berkshire’s stake at more than 17%.
Closed last week at $ 56.15 up 93.7 % YTD


Why?

Unhedged oil and NG exposure and new item

Warren Buffett is buying hands over fist. He bought 3 b as in billions just last week alone!

Risk is energy prices turn down. Do your own due diligence. I think we have follow thru next week

Unhedged turns me on. NG is a bargain at $ 5 , equivalent to $ 30 oil this will continue to push demand. Biden's insane energy policies, the fight against pipelines all add up to higher prices

The media is now blaming Ukraine for higher prices, in part true, but they were pushing $ 100 before the crisis and Dan's excellent weekly reports have been talking about declining inventories and higher demand for many months now.

OXY has a warrant exercisable at $ 22 , 112 m of them , trades with the common. Ichan owns a ton of them but it's been repeorted he has cut his stake.
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Re: Oxy

Postby Fraser921 » Sun Mar 06, 2022 8:53 am

https://www.oxy.com/globalassets/documents/investors/quarterly-earnings/oxy4q21conferencecallslides.pdf

FCF was 2,930 m in q4 page 2

https://www.oxy.com/globalassets/documents/investors/quarterly-earnings/oxy4q21nongaapreconciliation.pdf

That was with realized oil at 75.78 page 14 >>>> [color=#008000]What do you think it will be at $ 115?? All unhedged [b][color=#0040FF] Let me give you a clue.. Annualized cash flow changes ~$225 MM per $1.00 /
[color=#0040FF][color=#0040FF]bbl change in oil prices, 40 bucks * 225 m = 9 billion MORE CASH FLOW. So instead of CURRENT 3 b per qtr = 5 b quarterly

https://www.oxy.com/globalassets/documents/investors/quarterly-earnings/oxy4q21earningspressrelease_financials2.pdf
Last edited by Fraser921 on Sun Mar 06, 2022 10:35 am, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: Oxy

Postby Fraser921 » Sun Mar 06, 2022 10:06 am

https://www.sec.gov/Archives/edgar/data/797468/000089924322009579/xslF345X03/doc4.xml
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Re: Oxy

Postby Fraser921 » Wed Mar 09, 2022 11:31 am

They wanted to buyback 2.5 b debt
2.9 b was tendered and they accepted it all

The name bounced back from early weakness and is now up on the day
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