Riley Exploration Permian (REPX) Update - July 4

[dan_s]

REPX closed at $24.12 on July 1. First Call's price target is $47. Truist Financial's (Neal Dingmann) price target is $52.00

I have updated my valuation for lower gas prices and a slight increase in the Company's production guidance.
My current valuation stays at $52.00.

Riley is a pure play on the Permian Basin. Most of its revenues are from oil sales, so lower natural gas prices lowered by valuation by less than 10 cents.

Riley is in the early stages of a CO2 Flood that could significantly increase their recoverable reserves and the Company's net asset value.
> It is on a fiscal year that ends September 30.
> Fiscal Q3 (6/30/2022) production should be approximately 10,500 Boepd (~75% oil), which compares to Fiscal Q2 production of 9,791 Boepd.
> FYE 9/30/2022 should generate operating cash flow of $140.8 million ($7.09/share) and FCF of approximately $50 million.
> At 9/30/2022, Riley's production s/b ~11,250 Boepd.
> If the CO2 flood works, my valuation could go over $80.00

The CO2 flood is in the San Andres zone. There are several very successful San Andres CO2 floods in the Permian Basin.

My updated forecast/valuation model has been posted to the EPG website.