Crescent Point (CPG) Valuation Update - July 28

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dan_s
Posts: 34465
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Crescent Point (CPG) Valuation Update - July 28

Post by dan_s »

I have updated my forecast/valuation model for Crescent Point Energy (CPG), a recent addition to our Small-Cap Growth Portfolio.
I am still gaining confidence in my forecast model, so I am trying to be conservative in my assumptions.
My updated valuation is now $13.50US per share.

At the time of this post, CPG was trading at $7.59US and First Call's Price Target is $13.02US

TipRanks: "On 7/28/2022 the National Bank of Canada lowered their price target by $1 to $20Cdn per share ($15.60US). Also on 7/28/2022, Randy Ollenberger at BMO Capital (a 5-Star analyst) rated the stock a Buy with a price target of $11.70US."

On the TSX (Canada) exchange CPG was trading at $9.81Cdn per share, which compares to my 2022 Operating CFPS forecast of $4.01Cdn. In my opinion, this Canadian mid-cap with a strong balance sheet, ~130,000 Boepd of production and lots of running room should eventually trade for 6X operating cash flow, so a 12-month price target could be as high as $24Cdn/share.

TipRanks' Operating CFPS forecast for 2022 is much higher at $4.11US per share, which translates to approximately $5.13Cdn per share.

The Company should generate over $1.3Cdn billion of free cash flow from operations this year and it has a lot of running room.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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