Riley Exploration Per (REPX) Update - Jan 17

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dan_s
Posts: 34470
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Riley Exploration Per (REPX) Update - Jan 17

Post by dan_s »

Riley Exploration Permian, Inc. (REPX) recently announced that its Board of Directors has approved a cash dividend on the Company's common stock in the amount of $0.34 per share ($1.36/year). The dividend is payable on February 8, 2023 to stockholders of record as of the close of business on January 25, 2023. This marks the 16th consecutive quarter that the Company has distributed a dividend to its common shareholders.

Lower natural gas prices reduce my current valuation by $1 to $45/share. At the time of this post REPX was trading at $34.77.

If the Company's guidance confirms my forecast assumptions for 2023, my valuation will be going over $50/share because I will double weight 2023 operating cash flow in all of the valuation models once they release Q4 2022 results and provide updated guidance for 2023.

Riley has a CO2 flood pilot project underway that has the potential to add significant upside. Riley's core asset is in an area of the Permian Basin where CO2 floods have significantly increased recovery rates. Plus, Riley should qualify for some large tax credits for pumping CO2 into the ground.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
ajootian
Posts: 47
Joined: Thu Jun 17, 2010 7:16 am

Re: Riley Exploration Per (REPX) Update - Jan 17

Post by ajootian »

Dan, any thoughts on the 24% move in the stock price over the last 8 trading days? I haven't seen any news or commentary on them.
dan_s
Posts: 34470
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Riley Exploration Per (REPX) Update - Jan 17

Post by dan_s »

Just 20.2 million shares outstanding + rising oil production + more confidence in oil prices moving higher this summer = outstanding numbers for 2023.

If oil averages $85/bbl this year:
> Net Income should be over $137 million ($6.70/share)
> Operating cash flow should be over $208 million ($10.18/share)
> Year-over-year production growth should be more than 20%

I expect Netherland Sewell's 12-31-2022 reserve report to show PV10 Net Asset Value of just Riley's proved reserves (P1) to be over $40/share. Plus, if the CO2 flood pilot project is successful, P1 reserves should go a lot higher.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
ChuckGeb
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Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 2:46 pm

Re: Riley Exploration Per (REPX) Update - Jan 17

Post by ChuckGeb »

Riley’s latest presentation shows internally prepared proved reserves of $43.35 at 9/30 including $35.27 of PDP. Very curious movement in stock as noted above. Nothing appearing in the public sphere. I guess we will get updated soon. Last year they reported earnings 2/15 but I suppose that was when it was a Q1 report and this year will be 2022 year and Q4 so may be later.
dan_s
Posts: 34470
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Riley Exploration Per (REPX) Update - Jan 17

Post by dan_s »

PV10 Net Asset Value based only on Total Proved Reserves
> Current Assets as of 9/30/2022 50,355
> PV-10 as of 9/30/2022 874,000 < Based on NYMEX strip prices of $78 to $60 for oil
> Less: Total Liabilities (177,897)
= $746,458,000
> Divided by common stock o/s 20,182,000 shares
= PV10 Net Asset Value per share $36.99
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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