Some good offshore commentary/research (TDW, RIG etc)

[JBtheBrit]

Some good commentary on offshore (drillers and service vessels). Most of the focus is on TDW (the largest public name in the offshore support vessel space), however it also covers drillers like RIG, Valeris etc. I do think offshore is setting up well if one buys into oil averaging at least $70-80 for the next 3-4 years (which I do). Some very good info on industry history and looks at both bull and bear cases. I have been in RIG for 12 months or so and plan to add on dips (its run up very nicely in the last couple of months as they have announced a stream of new contracts and also completed a couple of debt deals, pushing out meaningful maturities to the end of the 2020's). The risk with RIG is their debt load - they were the only major driller not to declare Chp. 11 in the 2016-2018 timeline.

Here are links to a three part series - you should be able to access for free (you might have to create a substack log in).

Part 1

https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.co ... e-offshore

Part 2

https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.co ... fshore-70d

Part 3

https://yetanothervalueblog.substack.co ... fshore-7ad

Two Podcast episodes - Tidewater management and Judd Arnold (a fund manager who has written an indepth review of the sector):

https://yetanothervalueblog.com/podcast

Judd Arnold research report

https://drive.google.com/file/d/1cKYzHg ... 0xTfT/view

[Fraser921]

Thanks for the info

[willvanam]

Thanks for these

[JBtheBrit]

It's been a great 7-8 months for Offshore. When I posted this in Jan TDW was at $42 and is now $64 and RIG was $6.20 and now $8.50 (RIG had already run up from around $2.50 in mid 2022). Very bullish confra call this week from RIG - I can see their share price treading water for a bit now... but the next big uplift is going to come when they finally get a major to pay to bring on one of their 8 high spec cold stacked rigs (its reported that there are only 12 ultra high spec/deepwater cold stacked rigs... and RIG owns 8 of them). Highly unlikely there will be any new builds starting any time soon. TDW has not reported yet... but a similar story. Still room for this one to run as well, given no new building going on of service vessels and the increasing focus on offshore. These are two of my largest (and best performing positions, along with some of Dan's names such as ESTE, SBOW and VTLE.

[Fraser921]

The day rates are improving and no one will be building new rigs.

I recently made an investment in OIH , an etf that owns a number of the names you mentioned.

John Polomy commented on the sector on his podcast today

https://youtu.be/svMYQHr0FaM?t=1546

[Fraser921]

The day rates are improving and no one will be building new rigs.

I recently made an investment in OIH , an etf that owns a number of the names you mentioned.

John Polomy commented on the sector on his podcast today

https://youtu.be/svMYQHr0FaM?t=1546

[JBtheBrit]

I had a position in OIH a while back, but switched it to specific offshore names, because I felt offshore services would be better than diluting with the onshore as well. I subscribe to John P's newsletter - he was definitely early on TDW (way before me... and probably a bit too early... but it is paying off for him now). He was also super early on tankers.