This is rich!

[Fraser921]

Phil Flynn Energy Report

Oil prices are pulling back on an explosive dollar and recession fears even as the International Energy Agency (IEA) declares that we are going through the worst energy crisis in the history of the world. That’s right, the same International Energy Agency that just a couple of years ago told the world to stop investing in fossil fuels is now bemoaning the fact that under investment in fossil fuels has created not only war in Europe but a crisis unlike anything the world has ever seen.

At the Sydney Energy Forum (SEF) the IEA executive director Fatih Birol has blamed the energy crisis on Russia’s invasion of Ukraine. He says it has had a larger impact on energy supplies than the oil crises in the 1970s. Argus Media reported that Mr. Birol said, “We are in the middle of the first global energy crisis. The world has never witnessed such an energy crisis in terms of its depth and consequences. It is interwoven by many factors including geopolitics, and I believe we may not have seen the worst of it yet. This winter in Europe will be very, very difficult.”

Yet while he blamed Russia for all the world woes on Energy, he failed to take responsibility for the IEA’s part in allowing Europe to become vulnerable to this energy price shock. The IEA has actively promoted a pullback in investment in fossil fuels and failed to flag as a risk Europe’s growing dependence on Russia as a supplier of oil and gas. Instead, he seemed to tout the green energy mistakes. Birol said, “We are going to see some tension in some countries on how they are going to align their national energy security demands with climate demand, but countries should not lock in large-scale fossil fuel investments,” Birol said.

In the meantime we have to deal with the green new deal recession. The dollar is rallying as the euro falls back close to parity. With the dollar raising concerns about the European economy and how deep and long this energy-related recession is going to last, the strength in the dollar has caused a risk-off across the commodity complex. Oil is getting beat up not only on concerns about weak demand but also due to concerns about the strength in the dollar.

We’ll also get the first look at the American Petroleum Institute report tonight and we know that crude oil supplies may increase because of a 6.9-million-barrel release from the strategic petroleum reserve last week. There will be a focus on gasoline and diesel supplies as the market wants to get a sense for how strong demand was over the 4th of July holiday weekend.

Natural gas on the other hand is breaking out to the upside. Not only is it be supported by European prices but the potential for a heat dome.

[dan_s]

I have been getting IEA's monthly "Oil Market Report" for decades. Like our own EIA, they are funded and beholding to their governments.

IEA is based in Paris, so they have to align their reports with the Climate Change Wackos and the Paris Climate Accord. The Green New Deal has turned into the Green Bad Deal. Interesting to see Mr. Birol mention the "Green Energy Mistakes" of the last two years. When IEA told the world two years ago not to invest in fossil fuel exploration and development projects it may turn out to be the green energy mistake that destroyed Europe.

IEA has ALWAYS under-estimated oil demand growth. That is because the people that sign their paychecks don't want to be reminded that this world runs on oil-based products.

It should be clear to everyone with a brain that China and India are not going to abide by the Paris Climate Accord mandates. Any country that relies heavily on wind and solar for electricity will have a failing economy. What industries will go to countries with unreliable power?

China will soon pass the U.S. as the #1 economy if we don't get a common sense energy policy soon.