GRRRRR We are screwed in NEW England

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Fraser921
Posts: 2955
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:48 am

GRRRRR We are screwed in NEW England

Post by Fraser921 »

The formerly disgraced Cuomo would not allow NG from the Marcellus PA to cross NY to enter New England
We used to buy from Russia in the winter


Winter gas prices in New England are hitting record highs in recent trading as the import-reliant region prepares to compete for LNG cargoes in a global market under pressure from strong demand in Europe.

At Boston's Algonquin Gas Transmission city-gates hub, peak-winter gas prices for the upcoming season have more than doubled since the start of this year. In recent trading, the December 2022 contract settled at a new high of over $34/MMBtu with the January 2023 contract now priced at a record high of over $40/MMBtu.

At Iroquois Gas Transmission Zone 2 in upstate New York—which typically prices up during winter to pull eastern Canadian gas into New England—the runup has been similar in magnitude with peak-season prices now trading in the $30-$40/MMBtu range, data from S&P Global Commodity Insights shows.
dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: GRRRRR We are screwed in NEW England

Post by dan_s »

When I worked at Hess (1983 to 2001) I saw New England spot market prices for natural gas over $60/MMBtu. If we see a "Polar Vortex" or two in Q1 2023 you may see triple digit ngas prices in New York.
What I can't understand is why people in the New England states keep electing these wackos.

My parents (in St. Louis) were hard core Democrats, but they would not recognize the party now. "We can't fix stupid", but we can un-elect them.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Fraser921
Posts: 2955
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:48 am

Re: GRRRRR We are screwed in NEW England

Post by Fraser921 »

Ive been in the minority since 1980. Too many whack jobs...
Fraser921
Posts: 2955
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:48 am

Re: GRRRRR We are screwed in NEW England

Post by Fraser921 »

From the Marcellus news

New England’s gas supply is precarious and has been for years. The region eliminated all of its coal-fired power plants and now relies on natural gas-fired power plants for much of its electricity generation (and oil when the natgas runs low). Yet the region and its governors, along with New York’s governors, block any and all new natural gas pipeline projects from the Pennsylvania Marcellus just a few hundred miles away. New England wants and needs the gas, yet they block the mechanism that will deliver it. Just another day in a socialist paradise. So what happens is predictable: When there is a supply disruption or a tick up in demand (like a cold winter), and supplies run short, prices go through the roof. Looking ahead to December and January, the NYMEX futures contracts are doing that right now, with prices exceeding a whopping $40/MMBtu.

The only solution left to New England is importing foreign LNG to make up a shortfall in natgas supplies. Which means New England must compete with Europe and Asia, and right now, there’s not enough LNG to go around. New England has to pay world rates for gas it could have for pennies on the dollar, if it only allowed pipelines. It’s completely insane. > I see this word used alot

Are there any alternatives? There are, but they are blocked too. Joe Biden refuses to allow LNG to be shipped on safe rail cars within this country, or we could ship LNG from the Marcellus/Utica to New England (see Biden DOT Moves to Kill LNG-by-Rail Rule Developed Under Trump). For over 100 years, the Jones Act has prohibited foreign-owned ships from loading materials at one port and sailing them to another American port, so we can’t even divert LNG from our own domestic export facilities and sail it to Boston (see Feds Waive Jones Act for Gas & Diesel Shipments…but Not LNG).

And yet the residents of New England keep electing dunderheads like Elizabeth “Pocahontas” Warren (she lied about her Native American heritage) and Ed “Lackey” Markey, who routinely speak out against pipelines and fossil energy. Now New Englanders will pay a very high price for their stupidity.

Prices surge at Algonquin city-gates, Iroquois Zone 2
TTF trades near $50 on strong European demand
New England imports 17.8 Bcf of LNG, winter 21-22

Winter gas prices in New England are hitting record highs in recent trading as the import-reliant region prepares to compete for LNG cargoes in a global market under pressure from strong demand in Europe.

At Boston’s Algonquin Gas Transmission city-gates hub, peak-winter gas prices for the upcoming season have more than doubled since the start of this year. In recent trading, the December 2022 contract settled at a new high of over $34/MMBtu with the January 2023 contract now priced at a record high of over $40/MMBtu.

At Iroquois Gas Transmission Zone 2 in upstate New York—which typically prices up during winter to pull eastern Canadian gas into New England—the runup has been similar in magnitude with peak-season prices now trading in the $30-$40/MMBtu range, data from S&P Global Commodity Insights shows.

Record winter prices in New England’s gas market come as the supply-constrained region looks to purchase LNG cargoes for the upcoming season. This winter, attracting cargoes in the Atlantic Basin market could prove more challenging as jittery buyers in Western Europe move aggressively to fill storage inventories ahead of next winter amid growing uncertainty over gas supply from Russia.

Onshore gas prices at Europe’s benchmark TTF hub are now trading at close to $50/MMBtu. In the global LNG market, winter cargo prices are only slightly lower, trading at around $41-$42/MMBtu.

LNG imports

Historically, New England’s gas market has faced exposure to global LNG prices during the peak winter heating season as the region relies on cargo imports to help overcome pipeline constraints and deliverability limitations that make it challenging for piped gas to reach end-users. The only difference this winter is that New England utilities and other customers will pay top dollar for supply.

Last winter, New England imported six LNG cargoes from November to March carrying the regasified equivalent of about 17.8 Bcf, Platts Analytics data shows.

During winter 2020-2021, the region’s two import terminals—Everett LNG and Northeast Gateway—imported a similar quantity of about 17.3 Bcf over the same five-month period. But in just the past five years, New England at times has imported significantly more—upward of 30 Bcf during a single heating season.

This winter, Platts Analytics is expecting stronger demand from the residential-commercial sector in the US Northeast, potentially fueling another uptick in LNG imports to New England.

While the Northeast includes states beyond New England and as far south as Kentucky and Virginia, some of this season’s expected uptick in demand would still likely come from the smaller, six-state sub-region stretching from Connecticut to Maine.

From November through March, homes and businesses in the Northeast are forecast to consume an average of 14.1 Bcf/d, or about 700 MMcf/d more than the residential-commercial sector did last winter. If accurate, it would make for the region’s strongest heating-demand season on record since winter 2018-2019.*

> I'm so pissed I can't see straight
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