Bonanza Creek (BCEI)

[dan_s]

Bonanza Creek Energy (BCEI): An updated profile and forecast have been posted under the Sweet 16 Tab.

I rate BCEI in the lower half of the Sweet 16 only because of its size. The company's operations team continues to deliver strong results. Their hedging program insulates the company from the decline in oil prices at least through the first half of 2015. My Fair Value Estimate is $65.15/share.

One thing that I have learned to watch carefully over the years is how the First Call forecasts change 7-10 days after the company reports quarterly results. If the FC revenue forecast remains relatively close to my forecast than I believe I'm not missing something. For BCEI, First Call's price target ($62.26) barely changed since they released Q3 results despite the fact that many analysts are just now updating their commodity price decks.

I do think my 2015 forecast for this one is conservative based on this year's strong production growth.