this correction

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setliff
Posts: 1823
Joined: Tue Apr 27, 2010 12:15 pm

this correction

Post by setliff »

(if that's what it is) is very hard to understand?????????

we need a flood of upgrades or buy reiterations
setliff
Posts: 1823
Joined: Tue Apr 27, 2010 12:15 pm

Re: this correction

Post by setliff »

best i have come up with is that there is fear of drilling and fracking(on duc's) starting up again and will drive crude back down.

from discussion with john kilduff on cnbc and a post on IV bd.

thoughts from this bd???

(btw, i don't buy it--ya don't turn things around that fast.)
mrtangible
Posts: 3
Joined: Wed May 15, 2013 12:30 pm

Re: this correction

Post by mrtangible »

On other forums I have today read comments that PXD intends to ramp up drilling at a CL price not much higher today and forecasting production growth this year.
setliff
Posts: 1823
Joined: Tue Apr 27, 2010 12:15 pm

Re: this correction

Post by setliff »

yeah, eog said a similar thing.
dan_s
Posts: 34648
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: this correction

Post by dan_s »

Ramping up drilling takes time. PXD and EOG do not have a bunch of rigs sitting on locations ready to drill. Regardless, the number of rigs drilling for oil will continue to fall no matter what oil prices do. Rigs drilling for oil will drop to 500 by end of June (from a 1,609 in early October) and will stay low through year-end no matter what oil prices do.

Believe when I tell you that drilling schedules are not like light switches. The logistics of a drilling program is a BIG DEAL.

The DUC stuff is BS. At most there are 300 wells intentionally not being completed. There are always a few thousand wells waiting on completion. There were over 50,000 wells drilled last year in the U.S. (half were horizontal shale wells) and at any point in time ~10% are waiting on completion crews.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
mikelp
Posts: 200
Joined: Thu Jun 12, 2014 10:15 am

Re: this correction

Post by mikelp »

these cycles are painful for energy longs.... there's more than your usual challenges here.... energy commodity prices are being driven by production and inventory levels ....which can be logically predicted by the rise & fall in rig counts and E&P capex levels, but there's currency to deal with also
... the DXY swings are intense, which have become impossible to predict lately. One set of economic data one day, the US Dollar rallies, another set of data the next day/week, the US Dollar falls.... just look at bond rates lately. A lot of traders getting burned if they are on the wrong side of that one.
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