Oil Storage Report - July 7

[dan_s]

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the Week Ending July 3, 2015

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.6 million barrels per day during the week ending July 3, 2015, 65,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 94.7% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging about 9.9 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production increased last week, averaging 5.1 million barrels per day.
U.S. crude oil imports averaged over 7.3 million barrels per day last week, down by 197,000 barrels per day from the previous week. Over the last four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 7.2 million barrels per day, 1.6% below the same four-week period last year. Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 852,000 barrels per day. Distillate fuel imports averaged 164,000 barrels per day last week.

U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 0.4 million barrels from the previous week. At 465.8 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories remain near levels not seen for this time of year in at least the last 80 years. Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels last week, and are in the upper half of the average range. Both finished gasoline inventories and blending components inventories increased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 1.6 million barrels last week and are in the middle of the average range for this time of year. Propane/propylene inventories rose 2.2 million barrels last week and are well above the upper limit of the average range. Total commercial petroleum inventories increased by 10.6 million barrels last week.

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 19.9 million barrels per day, up by 4.7% from the same period last year. Over the last four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged over 9.5 million barrels per day, up by 5.3% from the same period last year. Distillate fuel product supplied averaged about 3.9 million barrels per day over the last four weeks, up by 1.5% from the same period last year. Jet fuel product supplied is down 6.5% compared to the same four-week period last year.

[k1f]

From oiljack's board: "Don't worry, nothing's changed":

<<http://www.investorvillage.com/groups.a ... d=15088485

[dan_s]

Thanks for posting that link. Very good analysis of what is happening today. Speculative traders drive oil prices. There is a lot of emotion in their trading and IMO they overreact to stuff that has very little to do with oil supply/demand. The mess in Greece is a good example.

1. Oil supply/demand will me MUCH TIGHTER by year-end. Supply is headed down and demand is heading up. My SWAG is that demand will increase by 1.5 to 2.0 million barrels per day over the next six months. (BTW I think this may be why oil in storage is increasing. The refiners see what is coming and they are building inventory at low prices, because they can see what is down the road.)

2. The weekly numbers reported by EIA are Wild Ass Guesses. The market overreacts to them IMHO. Actual production in the United States is not known for at least three months. The most current "actuals" we have are April and those will be adjusted several times. Both IEA and EIA do not collect actual data, they rely on the states to report it to them. See this weeks newsletter for more on what Raymond James says about this.

I still think we are on the same path for oil prices that we saw in 2008-2009. From top to bottom and back to the trend line took 24 months. We are just starting the recovery period for this cycle. From mid-2009 to mid-2010 WTI moved from $35 to $80 BUT IT DID NOT GO UP IN A STRAIGHT LINE and it will not happen this time. I think we see $70/bbl by year-end and $80/bbl sometime before mid-2016.