RRC:
> 1.6 million acres in the world's best natural gas resource play. 400,000 acres in "Sweet Spot".
> Well hedged with lots of liquidity and flexibility.
> New midstream assets and pipelines will increase their net back gas prices by $0.75 to $1.00 in Q4.
Cabot (COG) will be added to Sweet 16.
> 10% to 15% annual production growth locked in for this gasser.
> Low cost producer
> COG and RRC see better U.S. gas market in 2016, primarily because of big increase in demand / LNG exports.
> netbacks in NE improving this winter.
Core Labs (CLB)
> Best company in the sub-secter
> Generates free cash flows for stock buybacks and dividends
> Market comments: U.S. oil production will be at least 500,000 BOPD lower in 2016, Mexico down 200,000 per day. They've heard reports of 900,000 BOPD drop in Russian oil production in 2016.
Approach Resources (arex)
> Shuting down all drilling until oil price at least $60
> Most leasehold is HBP
> Production will peak in Q3
> 2,000 HZ drilling locations, but "stupid" to drill at today's oil price.
> I agree and recommend accumulating AREX While it is under $3.00
Enercom - Monday's Report
Enercom - Monday's Report
Last edited by dan_s on Mon Aug 17, 2015 10:38 pm, edited 1 time in total.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Enercom - Monday's Report
Whitting (WLL) made a good presentation. I may put it back in Sweet 16.
Energy XXI is in survival mode.
Sanchez Energy (SN) made a very good presentation:
> 2nd quarter production beat forecast
> Hedges have cash value of $150 million today
> Capex will drop in half to $300 million in 2016
> All in cash expenses are under $19/boe, so good cash flows from operations
> Production s/b 46,000 to 50,000 boepd this year
> Estimated recoverable reserves at Catarina are now 3.5 X larger than when they acquired it from Shell. 1400 hz locations.
> Completed well costs keep coming down
> TMZ is crap.
Energy XXI is in survival mode.
Sanchez Energy (SN) made a very good presentation:
> 2nd quarter production beat forecast
> Hedges have cash value of $150 million today
> Capex will drop in half to $300 million in 2016
> All in cash expenses are under $19/boe, so good cash flows from operations
> Production s/b 46,000 to 50,000 boepd this year
> Estimated recoverable reserves at Catarina are now 3.5 X larger than when they acquired it from Shell. 1400 hz locations.
> Completed well costs keep coming down
> TMZ is crap.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Enercom - Monday's Report
Triangle Petroleum is solid but Bakken is sub-economic at today's oil price
> 1 rig running today, drilling but not completing wells. 20 uncompleted wells in inventory today.
> 14,000 boepd + $300 milliom of liquidity
> RockPile margins are crap, but gaining market share
> Equity in Caliber is a valuable asset
RSP Permium: I missed the presentation but others said it was good.
Lots of our model portfolio companies present on Tuesday
> 1 rig running today, drilling but not completing wells. 20 uncompleted wells in inventory today.
> 14,000 boepd + $300 milliom of liquidity
> RockPile margins are crap, but gaining market share
> Equity in Caliber is a valuable asset
RSP Permium: I missed the presentation but others said it was good.
Lots of our model portfolio companies present on Tuesday
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Enercom - Monday's Report
Synergy Resources (SYRG)
Comments from Stifel
Updating Estimates
At today's EnerCom conference, management indicated that it is likely to trim its
FY16 (YE 8/31/16) capital plan if oil prices remain depressed. The current plan
assumes SYRG adds a second rig in September 2015. However, the company is
more likely to maintain a one-rig program in light of current oil prices.
Looking to Grow Wattenberg Footprint
Given its current macro outlook, management would prefer to grow its Wattenberg
footprint rather than near-term production. The company is focused on adding
acreage that is contiguous to its legacy leasehold via swaps and lease
acquisitions. The latter currently ranges from $500 to $2,000/acre. SYRG has also
indicated in the past that it sees transformative opportunities. We suspect positions
held by Encana Corporation (ECA) 51k net acres, Extraction Oil and Gas (75k net
acres in Wattenberg core), and Great Western Oil & Gas Company (35k in
Wattenberg core), fall into this category. In addition to assets, SYRG sees ample
opportunity to build a high quality technical team in its recently opened Denver
office.
Reducing Well Costs
A leader on Wattenberg well costs, management believes $2.5mn per well is
achievable while recent wells have ranged from $2.7mn to $3.3mn. The company
recently finished drilling 4 mid-reach laterals on its Best Way pad and has 13 wells
currently waiting on completion.
Adjusting Estimates
Management believes a one-rig program would maintain FY16 production at the
4Q15 rate of 11.0 MBoe/d. As such, we are lowering our FY16 capital spending
and production forecasts 27% to $110mn and 11.1 MBoe/d, respectively. Our new
projection implies 2016 production growth of 27% y/y due to a 2015 ramp. The
adjustments cause us to lower our 2016 EPS/CFPS estimates 37%/29% to
$0.14/$1.07.
Reiterate Buy
While some investors may be disappointed by management's diminished
near-term organic growth outlook, we like the company's disciplined approach.
Preserving a pristine balance sheet in order to better position SYRG for acquisition
opportunities makes more sense to us than growing production aggressively.
Comments from Stifel
Updating Estimates
At today's EnerCom conference, management indicated that it is likely to trim its
FY16 (YE 8/31/16) capital plan if oil prices remain depressed. The current plan
assumes SYRG adds a second rig in September 2015. However, the company is
more likely to maintain a one-rig program in light of current oil prices.
Looking to Grow Wattenberg Footprint
Given its current macro outlook, management would prefer to grow its Wattenberg
footprint rather than near-term production. The company is focused on adding
acreage that is contiguous to its legacy leasehold via swaps and lease
acquisitions. The latter currently ranges from $500 to $2,000/acre. SYRG has also
indicated in the past that it sees transformative opportunities. We suspect positions
held by Encana Corporation (ECA) 51k net acres, Extraction Oil and Gas (75k net
acres in Wattenberg core), and Great Western Oil & Gas Company (35k in
Wattenberg core), fall into this category. In addition to assets, SYRG sees ample
opportunity to build a high quality technical team in its recently opened Denver
office.
Reducing Well Costs
A leader on Wattenberg well costs, management believes $2.5mn per well is
achievable while recent wells have ranged from $2.7mn to $3.3mn. The company
recently finished drilling 4 mid-reach laterals on its Best Way pad and has 13 wells
currently waiting on completion.
Adjusting Estimates
Management believes a one-rig program would maintain FY16 production at the
4Q15 rate of 11.0 MBoe/d. As such, we are lowering our FY16 capital spending
and production forecasts 27% to $110mn and 11.1 MBoe/d, respectively. Our new
projection implies 2016 production growth of 27% y/y due to a 2015 ramp. The
adjustments cause us to lower our 2016 EPS/CFPS estimates 37%/29% to
$0.14/$1.07.
Reiterate Buy
While some investors may be disappointed by management's diminished
near-term organic growth outlook, we like the company's disciplined approach.
Preserving a pristine balance sheet in order to better position SYRG for acquisition
opportunities makes more sense to us than growing production aggressively.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group