Working gas in storage was 1,986 Bcf as of Friday, May 31, 2019, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 119 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 182 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 240 Bcf below the five-year average of 2,226 Bcf.
At 1,986 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
During the last 13 weeks the delta to the 5-year average has been +312 Bcf. The delta was very large in April, but it has narrowed significantly in May. As we enter the hot summer and peak of power demand, we should see weekly builds drop to around 70 Bcf.
5-year average storage level in Mid-November (beginning of winter heating season) is 3,732 BCF, so there is still plenty of storage capacity.
EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - June 6
EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - June 6
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - June 6
TPH take on natural gas:
"US natural gas inventories built by 119bcf this week (5-yr avg 106, last year 96), exceeding consensus estimates of a 110bcf build and TPHe at 105bcf. The 119 print aligned with w/w changes in supply/demand but, like last week, reported storage adds are meaningfully ahead of what the gross flow data suggests. Inventories are now sitting at a 10% deficit to 5-year norms, compared to an 18% deficit one month prior. Compared to year ago levels, inventories are at an 11% surplus and on a weather adjusted basis, historical degree day correlations point to a 4bcfd oversupply, an increase from 3bcfd last week. This week's hefty build comes despite total degree days 20% above the 5-year average and, to make matters worse, latest weather forecasts are shifting bearish for natural gas demand. Also of note this week, start-up of Elba Island was delayed an unspecified amount of time, pushing out the ~0.2bcfd of feed gas demand. An early look at next week's storage report shows balances 9bcf tighter on a w/w basis, implying a build of ~110bcf, however, as indicated, gross flow data suggests a smaller build at ~95bcf."
"US natural gas inventories built by 119bcf this week (5-yr avg 106, last year 96), exceeding consensus estimates of a 110bcf build and TPHe at 105bcf. The 119 print aligned with w/w changes in supply/demand but, like last week, reported storage adds are meaningfully ahead of what the gross flow data suggests. Inventories are now sitting at a 10% deficit to 5-year norms, compared to an 18% deficit one month prior. Compared to year ago levels, inventories are at an 11% surplus and on a weather adjusted basis, historical degree day correlations point to a 4bcfd oversupply, an increase from 3bcfd last week. This week's hefty build comes despite total degree days 20% above the 5-year average and, to make matters worse, latest weather forecasts are shifting bearish for natural gas demand. Also of note this week, start-up of Elba Island was delayed an unspecified amount of time, pushing out the ~0.2bcfd of feed gas demand. An early look at next week's storage report shows balances 9bcf tighter on a w/w basis, implying a build of ~110bcf, however, as indicated, gross flow data suggests a smaller build at ~95bcf."
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: EIA Natural Gas Storage Report - June 6
Raymond James on U.S. natural gas market
This week’s injection of 119 Bcf was above the consensus estimate of a 109 Bcf injection (bearish). This implies that the market was 4.0 Bcf/d looser (bearish) than last year on a weather-adjusted basis, and it has averaged 2.8 Bcf/d looser over the past four weeks. Total gas in storage now stands at 1,986 Bcf, with the y/y storage surplus increasing by 27 Bcf to 169 Bcf.
Longer term, with associated gas production remaining robust, the market needs only modest supply growth from Appalachia (and likely declines in most other gas plays) to balance. We expect 2019 should prove to be a positive year for natural gas demand as both exports to Mexico and outbound LNG tanker activity ramp up. On the supply side, more associated gas supply is expected. However, we believe an increasing domestic gas supply and growth in renewables that are increasingly becoming more cost competitive with gas are putting further pressure on Henry Hub gas prices.
This week’s injection of 119 Bcf was above the consensus estimate of a 109 Bcf injection (bearish). This implies that the market was 4.0 Bcf/d looser (bearish) than last year on a weather-adjusted basis, and it has averaged 2.8 Bcf/d looser over the past four weeks. Total gas in storage now stands at 1,986 Bcf, with the y/y storage surplus increasing by 27 Bcf to 169 Bcf.
Longer term, with associated gas production remaining robust, the market needs only modest supply growth from Appalachia (and likely declines in most other gas plays) to balance. We expect 2019 should prove to be a positive year for natural gas demand as both exports to Mexico and outbound LNG tanker activity ramp up. On the supply side, more associated gas supply is expected. However, we believe an increasing domestic gas supply and growth in renewables that are increasingly becoming more cost competitive with gas are putting further pressure on Henry Hub gas prices.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group