As of the July 8 closing prices:
> Our Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio is up 13.2% YTD and 94.5% since 1-1-2010.
> S-16 up ~4.0% this week due to the bounce in oil prices. IMO each day that oil closes above $96/bbl confirms it as a strong support level. Oil price changed by more than 2% three of the four trading days this week. It changed by more than 2% thirty-seven trading days in the first half of this year. The price volitility will continue but the overall trend is for higher prices over the next six months.
> Take a look at his chart and you will see why I believe $90/bbl is a very Hard Floor for oil:
http://www.cmegroup.com/popup/mdq2.html ... study=BOLL
> Each day NG stays over $4/mcf is a blessing. The near-term outlook for gas is bearish.
Sweet 16 Update - July 8
Sweet 16 Update - July 8
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Sweet 16 Update - July 8
CRZO, which closed at $42.36 on Friday, is now very close to my Fair Value estimate.
This is just a suggestion if you own the stock.
> Sell Covered Calls with a Strike Price of $40 and an expiration date of August 19 (after 2nd quarter results come out). These Calls sold for $4.20 today.
If the the company's 2nd quarter results are disappointing, the stock may dip below $40 and the Calls will expire (you just keep the $4.20/share in cash). [I'm not saying that I expect 2nd quarter results to be disappointing!]
If the 2nd quarter results are on forecast or even above it, I doubt the stock will move much higher than $44/share, primarily because I'm expecting NG prices to drift lower during the 3rd quarter. You will have a few days to decide if you want to close out the call options or let the stock get called away and pocket a very nice gain.
My LT outlook for CRZO remains bullish but it is still a "gasser" so Q3 could be challenging. If Q2 results confirm my forecast model, I will be raising my Fair Value estimate and 2012 is really shaping up to be a great year for this one.
This is just a suggestion if you own the stock.
> Sell Covered Calls with a Strike Price of $40 and an expiration date of August 19 (after 2nd quarter results come out). These Calls sold for $4.20 today.
If the the company's 2nd quarter results are disappointing, the stock may dip below $40 and the Calls will expire (you just keep the $4.20/share in cash). [I'm not saying that I expect 2nd quarter results to be disappointing!]
If the 2nd quarter results are on forecast or even above it, I doubt the stock will move much higher than $44/share, primarily because I'm expecting NG prices to drift lower during the 3rd quarter. You will have a few days to decide if you want to close out the call options or let the stock get called away and pocket a very nice gain.
My LT outlook for CRZO remains bullish but it is still a "gasser" so Q3 could be challenging. If Q2 results confirm my forecast model, I will be raising my Fair Value estimate and 2012 is really shaping up to be a great year for this one.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Sweet 16 Update - July 8
All four or our Calgary based companies in the S-16 (GTE, PBG, PMG and TGA) are down for the year. In fact, they are the only stocks down for the year.
They are all heavily weighted to oil and I'm expecting them to report solid 2nd quarter results.
Earning per share
SYM, Q1A, Q2E
GTE, $0.05, $0.14
PBG, $0.19, $0.17
PMG, $0.34, $1.02
TGA, $0.04, $0.32
GTE and PMG both reported a large non-recurring Columbian excise tax in the first quarter.
They are all heavily weighted to oil and I'm expecting them to report solid 2nd quarter results.
Earning per share
SYM, Q1A, Q2E
GTE, $0.05, $0.14
PBG, $0.19, $0.17
PMG, $0.34, $1.02
TGA, $0.04, $0.32
GTE and PMG both reported a large non-recurring Columbian excise tax in the first quarter.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group