In this interview with Reuters, the Russian Energy Minister says that they can live with Brent in the $45/bbl range.
https://www.reuters.com/article/us-oil- ... SKBN20Y2TJ
Saudi Arabia and all of the OPEC cartel members cannot live long at that price.
MY TAKE is that WTI will get back to $40/bbl by June and move back over $50/bbl once we get past the FEAR mongering of COVID-19.
They call it "Flu Season" for a reason and this bug dies in the summer.
Oil Price Forecast from Russia - March 13
Oil Price Forecast from Russia - March 13
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil Price Forecast from Russia - March 13
I hope you are right. I also read the article. However, if you are wrong, and we go into a prolonged $35-45 range, which, if any, of your faves can survive that. Also, which of your faves are most unlikely to survive and, therefore, should be sold?
Secondly, PE and CPE made the big acquisitions right before the crash. That now seems like a big unforced error. How do you view their situations now?
Secondly, PE and CPE made the big acquisitions right before the crash. That now seems like a big unforced error. How do you view their situations now?
Re: Oil Price Forecast ... - March 13-- COVID-19 seasonality
They call it "Flu Season" for a reason and this bug dies in the summer.
Seasonality of COVID-19 is unknown. Not all coronaviruses that have previously appeared in humans have spread only in winter. Experts are hoping that COVID-19 will taper off in warm weather, but that is only hoped for, not predicted.
Here is a credible site written by physicians about Coronaviruses in humans (HCoVs) generally. It is about a month out of date. https://www.uptodate.com/contents/coronaviruses Seasonality is discussed in the Epidemiology section.
Here is a credible site about COVID-19, updated and with hot links to most sources (e.g., CDC). You will not see any statement that evidence exists to support the position that COVID-19 will "die in the summer." https://www.uptodate.com/contents/coron ... e=see_link
COVID-19 also cannot be reliably analogized to influenza, either regarding seasonality (no data for COVID-19) or otherwise (e.g., penetrance and fatality rates). COVID-19 is much more contagious than flu because (among other reasons) infected persons are asymptomatic during the first several days following exposure, but are nevertheless (unknowingly) contagious. Thus, COVID-19's R0 is higher than that of flu, and penetrance will likely be greater, even more so because there is no COVID-19 vaccine (at least 12 months away) whereas there are flu vaccines that reduce flu penetrance. Also, while COVID-19 data are early, a consensus is emerging that its fatality rate may be 10x that of flu (some believe it may be higher). That number is still to be known and will be population (and other variables) dependent, but until an effective antiviral therapy is found that can be produced and administered on a mass scale (hopefully only 2-3 months away, remdesivir is one candidate currently being studied in COVID-19), fatality rates could be very high compared to U.S. flu fatality rates (about 0.1%, but variable annually).
Seasonality of COVID-19 is unknown. Not all coronaviruses that have previously appeared in humans have spread only in winter. Experts are hoping that COVID-19 will taper off in warm weather, but that is only hoped for, not predicted.
Here is a credible site written by physicians about Coronaviruses in humans (HCoVs) generally. It is about a month out of date. https://www.uptodate.com/contents/coronaviruses Seasonality is discussed in the Epidemiology section.
Here is a credible site about COVID-19, updated and with hot links to most sources (e.g., CDC). You will not see any statement that evidence exists to support the position that COVID-19 will "die in the summer." https://www.uptodate.com/contents/coron ... e=see_link
COVID-19 also cannot be reliably analogized to influenza, either regarding seasonality (no data for COVID-19) or otherwise (e.g., penetrance and fatality rates). COVID-19 is much more contagious than flu because (among other reasons) infected persons are asymptomatic during the first several days following exposure, but are nevertheless (unknowingly) contagious. Thus, COVID-19's R0 is higher than that of flu, and penetrance will likely be greater, even more so because there is no COVID-19 vaccine (at least 12 months away) whereas there are flu vaccines that reduce flu penetrance. Also, while COVID-19 data are early, a consensus is emerging that its fatality rate may be 10x that of flu (some believe it may be higher). That number is still to be known and will be population (and other variables) dependent, but until an effective antiviral therapy is found that can be produced and administered on a mass scale (hopefully only 2-3 months away, remdesivir is one candidate currently being studied in COVID-19), fatality rates could be very high compared to U.S. flu fatality rates (about 0.1%, but variable annually).