Opening Prices:
> WTI is down 58c to $40.02/Bbl, and Brent is down 57c to $42.29/Bbl.
> Natural gas is up 14.3c to $2.884/MMBtu. < The DEC20 NYMEX contract is now trading at $3.27 Wow!
Oil prices fell as Norwegian offshore workers ended a strike that had threatened to take a quarter of the country’s output offline, while producers in the Gulf of Mexico also tentatively restarted production as Hurricane Delta moved inland.
More downward pressure on oil prices came from the news that war-torn Libya had restarted production at its biggest field, El Sharara, which produces up to 300,000 barrels a day. Actual output is likely to be much less in the coming days, however.
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Overweight the companies that produce a lot of natural gas and NGLs. If we get a cold start to the winter, natural gas may spike to over $4.00. The two week weather forecast is now showing some very cold air with snow coming into the Great Lakes area in the 2nd week. We are in the first year of a La Nina and the first year can bring a lot of cold to the Eastern U.S. in Q1. Watch "The Saturday Summary" here: https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/ Joe's winter forecast has been updated on the website.
Closing Prices:
> WTI prompt month (NOV 20) was down $1.17 on the day, to settle at $39.43/Bbl.
> In contrast, NG prompt month (NOV 20) was up $0.140 on the day, to settle at $2.881/MMBtu. < The DEC20 ngas futures contract closed today at $3.27.
Oil & Gas Prices - Oct 12
Oil & Gas Prices - Oct 12
Last edited by dan_s on Mon Oct 12, 2020 5:04 pm, edited 3 times in total.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Oct 12
U.S. oil and gas companies were returning workers and restarting operations at storm-swept production facilities along the U.S. Gulf Coast on Oct. 11, two days after Hurricane Delta barreled through the area.
Chevron Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BHP Group Plc all said workers were headed back to production platforms in the U.S.-regulated northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM).
BHP expects to complete the return of workers to its Shenzi and Neptune production platforms on Oct. 11, spokeswoman Judy Dane said, adding that resuming flows will depend on how quickly pipelines return to service.
Hurricane Delta Shuts Over 90% of US Gulf of Mexico Oil Production
It can take several days after a storm passes for energy producers to evaluate facilities for damage, return workers and restore offshore production. The companies that operate oil and gas pipelines and process the offshore output also shut ahead of the storm.
On Oct. 11, the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) said 91% of offshore crude oil production remains shut in the U.S.-regulated northern GoM following Hurricane Delta, which made landfall on Oct. 9.
In addition, 62.2% of natural gas output remains shut in the Gulf following the storm that made landfall near Creole, La., and weakened into a low-pressure system over Mississippi on Oct. 10.
Through Oct. 11, a cumulative total of 8.8 million barrels of crude oil production and 8.3 Bcf of natural gas output from the Gulf has been shut because of Hurricane Delta.
The area produces about 17% of total daily U.S. oil production and 5% of daily natural gas production.
Still remaining shut are the Calcasieu Waterway in Calcasieu and Cameron Parishes in Louisiana and the ports of Lake Charles and Cameron, La., near where Delta made landfall.
The ports of Beaumont and Port Arthur, Texas, including the Sabine Pass, which serve major oil and liquefied natural gas processing plants, were reopened with restrictions on Oct. 11, the U.S. Coast Guard said.
Total SA continued restarting its 225,500 barrel-per-day Port Arthur, Texas, refinery on Oct. 11. The refinery, which is about 65 miles (100 km) west of Creole, La., lost power on Oct. 9.
Fast-moving Delta swept over Louisiana on Oct. 10 and became a low-pressure system over the U.S. state of Mississippi later that day. It was south of Knoxville, Tennessee, the morning of Oct. 11 and moving northeast at 16 mph (25.7 km per hour).
Remnants of Delta were forecast to drop 3 inches to 6 inches (7.6 cm to 15.2 cm) of rain on parts of Tennessee, the Appalachian region of northeast Georgia, western Carolinas and western Virginia, the National Hurricane Center said on Oct. 11.
Chevron Corp., Royal Dutch Shell Plc and BHP Group Plc all said workers were headed back to production platforms in the U.S.-regulated northern Gulf of Mexico (GoM).
BHP expects to complete the return of workers to its Shenzi and Neptune production platforms on Oct. 11, spokeswoman Judy Dane said, adding that resuming flows will depend on how quickly pipelines return to service.
Hurricane Delta Shuts Over 90% of US Gulf of Mexico Oil Production
It can take several days after a storm passes for energy producers to evaluate facilities for damage, return workers and restore offshore production. The companies that operate oil and gas pipelines and process the offshore output also shut ahead of the storm.
On Oct. 11, the U.S. Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE) said 91% of offshore crude oil production remains shut in the U.S.-regulated northern GoM following Hurricane Delta, which made landfall on Oct. 9.
In addition, 62.2% of natural gas output remains shut in the Gulf following the storm that made landfall near Creole, La., and weakened into a low-pressure system over Mississippi on Oct. 10.
Through Oct. 11, a cumulative total of 8.8 million barrels of crude oil production and 8.3 Bcf of natural gas output from the Gulf has been shut because of Hurricane Delta.
The area produces about 17% of total daily U.S. oil production and 5% of daily natural gas production.
Still remaining shut are the Calcasieu Waterway in Calcasieu and Cameron Parishes in Louisiana and the ports of Lake Charles and Cameron, La., near where Delta made landfall.
The ports of Beaumont and Port Arthur, Texas, including the Sabine Pass, which serve major oil and liquefied natural gas processing plants, were reopened with restrictions on Oct. 11, the U.S. Coast Guard said.
Total SA continued restarting its 225,500 barrel-per-day Port Arthur, Texas, refinery on Oct. 11. The refinery, which is about 65 miles (100 km) west of Creole, La., lost power on Oct. 9.
Fast-moving Delta swept over Louisiana on Oct. 10 and became a low-pressure system over the U.S. state of Mississippi later that day. It was south of Knoxville, Tennessee, the morning of Oct. 11 and moving northeast at 16 mph (25.7 km per hour).
Remnants of Delta were forecast to drop 3 inches to 6 inches (7.6 cm to 15.2 cm) of rain on parts of Tennessee, the Appalachian region of northeast Georgia, western Carolinas and western Virginia, the National Hurricane Center said on Oct. 11.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Oct 12
Bullish news for natural gas demand:
On October 9 Reuters reported Asian spot LNG prices rose this week on firm demand in the region, as well as supply concerns in the United States due to a hurricane and stronger European gas prices. The average LNG price for November delivery into northeast Asia was estimated at $5.50 MMBtu, $0.30 MMBtu above last week's level. The price for December 2020 delivery was at around $5.70 per MMBtu, trade sources said. Demand for LNG is expected to be high in both Asia and Europe in the fourth quarter. "We are expecting a substantial year-on-year increase in Northeast Asia's Q4 2020 demand for LNG because of increased heating load compared to last winter," consultancy Energy Aspects said in a report, adding that lower nuclear output in South Korea may also create additional LNG demand. In India, demand is back to usual levels after a fall caused by the COVID-19 pandemic earlier this year, a source in the country said. < This means that when all of the U.S. LNG export facilities are back online after Hurricane Delta the U.S. LNG exports will ramp up to MAX CAPACITY of over 9.5 Bcf per day.
On October 9 Reuters reported large and powerful Hurricane Delta dealt the greatest blow to U.S. offshore Gulf of Mexico energy production in 15 years, halting most of the region's oil and nearly two-thirds of natural gas output. Delta has shut 1.69 million b/d, or 92% of the Gulf's oil output, as of midday Friday, the most since 2005 when Hurricane Katrina. In addition to oil, producers have halted nearly 62% of the region's natural gas output, or 1.684 Bcf/d.
On October 9 Reuters reported Asian spot LNG prices rose this week on firm demand in the region, as well as supply concerns in the United States due to a hurricane and stronger European gas prices. The average LNG price for November delivery into northeast Asia was estimated at $5.50 MMBtu, $0.30 MMBtu above last week's level. The price for December 2020 delivery was at around $5.70 per MMBtu, trade sources said. Demand for LNG is expected to be high in both Asia and Europe in the fourth quarter. "We are expecting a substantial year-on-year increase in Northeast Asia's Q4 2020 demand for LNG because of increased heating load compared to last winter," consultancy Energy Aspects said in a report, adding that lower nuclear output in South Korea may also create additional LNG demand. In India, demand is back to usual levels after a fall caused by the COVID-19 pandemic earlier this year, a source in the country said. < This means that when all of the U.S. LNG export facilities are back online after Hurricane Delta the U.S. LNG exports will ramp up to MAX CAPACITY of over 9.5 Bcf per day.
On October 9 Reuters reported large and powerful Hurricane Delta dealt the greatest blow to U.S. offshore Gulf of Mexico energy production in 15 years, halting most of the region's oil and nearly two-thirds of natural gas output. Delta has shut 1.69 million b/d, or 92% of the Gulf's oil output, as of midday Friday, the most since 2005 when Hurricane Katrina. In addition to oil, producers have halted nearly 62% of the region's natural gas output, or 1.684 Bcf/d.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Oct 12
The EIA forecasts that global consumption of petroleum and liquid fuels will average 92.8 million b/d for all of 2020, down by 8.6 million b/d from 2019, before increasing by 6.3 million b/d in 2021. The agency now expects U.S. petroleum and other liquid fuel consumption to decline 2.31 million b/d to 18.23 million b/d in 2020, a slightly bigger decline than its previous forecast for a drop of 2.12 million b/d. For 2021, U.S. demand is expected to rise 1.74 million b/d to 19.97 million b/d compared with a previous forecast for a rise of 1.64 million b/d. U.S. crude output is expected to fall 360,000 b/d to 11.09 million b/d in 2021, compared with a previous estimate of a decline of 300,000 b/d.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Oct 12
Closing Prices:
> WTI prompt month (NOV 20) was down $1.17 on the day, to settle at $39.43/Bbl.
> In contrast, NG prompt month (NOV 20) was up $0.140 on the day, to settle at $2.881/MMBtu. < The DEC20 ngas futures contract closed today at $3.27.
> WTI prompt month (NOV 20) was down $1.17 on the day, to settle at $39.43/Bbl.
> In contrast, NG prompt month (NOV 20) was up $0.140 on the day, to settle at $2.881/MMBtu. < The DEC20 ngas futures contract closed today at $3.27.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group