Callon Petroleum (CPE, $5.44, Buy; Target $16.50)
Announces a production beat and debt exchange - Derrick Whitfield, the top energy sector analysts at Stifel
We view this release as neutral to slightly positive. The positives include: i) a total equivalent and oil production beat (5.5% and 4.4% above consensus) on lower than expected capex (5.6% below consensus), ii) an EBITDAX beat on lower than expected cash costs, and iii) a debt exchange expected to lower net debt by ~$128mm. The negatives include: i) lower than expected implied Q420 total equivalent and oil production (1.1% and 7.5% below consensus), ii) higher than expected implied Q420 capex (9.4% above consensus) and iii) lower than expected 2021 oil production (1.8% below consensus). Net-net, Callon delivered a solid quarter and continued to address the debt overhang which should offset implied Q420 guidance
Callon Petroleum (CPE) Q3 - Nov 4
Callon Petroleum (CPE) Q3 - Nov 4
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Callon Petroleum (CPE) Q3 - Nov 4
Third Quarter Highlights
Delivered production of approximately 102.0 Mboe/d (63% oil), above expectations, for the third quarter of 2020 < Compares to my forecast of 94.0 Mboe/day in Q3.
Posted accrued operational capital spending of $38.4 million , below consensus estimates, and lowered the top end of operational capital range to $510 million , a 15% reduction since announcing the modified development program in May 2020
Generated net cash from operating activities of $135.7 million and free cash flow 1 of $80.3 million for the third quarter < Compares to my forecast of $133.7 million operating cash flow.
Loss available to common stockholders of $680.4 million , or $17.12 per fully diluted share, driven by an impairment of evaluated oil and gas properties of $685.0 million , adjusted EBITDA 1 of $170.9 million , and adjusted income per share 1 of $0.64 for the third quarter of 2020 < Adjusted Net Income compares to my forecast of $11.1 million, $0.28/share.
Achieved lease operating expense ("LOE") of $45.9 million or $4.89 per Boe for the third quarter of 2020, an improvement of approximately 10%, on an absolute basis, over the comparable three-month period ended June 30, 2020 < Compares to my LOE forecast of $6.00/boe.
Resumed completion and drilling activity with recent well costs for Eagle Ford and Delaware third quarter completions at $460 and $825 per lateral foot, respectively, exceeding previous targets as a result of continued operational efficiency gains
Increased liquidity to nearly $600 million and reduced total net debt by approximately $160 million after transaction expenses through a series of strategic transactions including the issuance of $300 million of secured second lien notes, an overriding royalty interest ("ORRI") transaction, and a non-operated working interest sale
Completed the fall borrowing base redetermination with a reaffirmed borrowing base of $1.7 billion which was subsequently reduced to $1.6 billion , reflecting a minimal reduction to account for the recent ORRI sale and second lien note issuance
Entered into a privately negotiated debt exchange of $286 million of unsecured Senior Notes for new second lien notes, reducing net debt by an estimated $128 million , with an option for the counterparties and their affiliates to exchange additional unsecured Senior Notes up to approximately $104 million
Joe Gatto , President and Chief Executive Officer commented, "During the third quarter, our operations team continued to execute on our cost reduction efforts, posting meaningful gains that bolstered our free cash flow generation to approximately $100 million over the last two quarters. These achievements coupled with our recent strategic initiatives to improve liquidity and propel our debt reduction efforts have placed us in a much better position as we look to close out 2020 with the resumption of moderated development across all three of our asset areas."
He continued, "Well performance from our modified stacking and spacing program has met or exceeded expectations, confirming the merits of our life-of-field development model that will preserve the future value of our inventory while simultaneously delivering near-term economic returns at current strip prices. Moreover, our focus on cost control and operational efficiency through scaled development is pushing us towards even lower cost thresholds that should generate improved cash flow and lower break-even pricing over time."
Mr. Gatto closed by sharing, "Alongside these operational and strategic achievements, we have continued to focus on operating safely, with a clear vision for reducing our environmental impact, maintaining our social awareness and treatment of our workforce, and strengthening our alignment with the needs of our shareholders. The recent issuance of our inaugural Sustainability report provides a clear and well-documented picture of where we stand and the path to continuously improving in each of these three critical areas. As we finalize the details of our 2021 budget and activity levels, our focus will be on our debt reduction efforts, maintaining a low cost development and operations structure, and creating durable and cogent changes that not only enhance shareholder returns but also positively impact our employees, communities, and our broader stakeholder group."
Private Debt Exchange
Callon also announced another meaningful step today in the execution of its deleveraging plan. On November 2nd , the Company entered into a privately negotiated agreement with certain holders of its outstanding unsecured debt securities to exchange $286 million of principal of the Company's existing unsecured Senior Notes (the "Senior Notes") for $158 million aggregate principal of new 9.00% Second Lien Notes due 2025, payable semi-annually (the "Second Lien Notes"), to be issued by Callon at a weighted average exchange ratio of approximately $555 per $1,000 of principal exchanged. Over 60% of the existing Senior Notes to be exchanged are due 2023 and 2024. Upon completion of the exchange, Callon's total net debt will be reduced by approximately $128 million and total cash interest expense by approximately $5 million .
In addition, certain other affiliated parties have the option to exchange up to an additional approximately $104 million of principal of Senior Notes under the same exchange terms. At full participation, the estimated total debt reduction and total cash interest expense reduction would be approximately $175 million and $7 million , respectively.
Participants in the exchange will also receive between 1.16 and 1.76 million warrants, dependent on final participation levels, with a strike price of $5.60 which is consistent with the strike price for the warrants issued recently in relation to the Company's initial issuance of Second Lien Notes that was announced on October 1st .
The private debt exchange is scheduled to close on November 17th . Callon currently expects the borrowing base under its credit facility to remain unchanged at $1.6 billion , and its next scheduled redetermination will take place in May 2021 .
Operations Update
At September 30, 2020, Callon had 1,479 gross (1,305.9 net) horizontal wells producing from established flow units in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale. Net daily production for the three months ended September 30, 2020 grew 170% to 102.0 Mboe/d (63% oil), as compared to the same period of 2019.
For the three months ended September 30, 2020, Callon drilled zero horizontal wells and placed a combined 12 gross (11.4 net) horizontal wells on production, all of which were turned to production late in the quarter. The Company reactivated two completion crews, one each in the Eagle Ford and Delaware Basin, both of which completed previously drilled multi-well projects during September. Subsequently, one of the two completion crews has been released and three drilling rigs have resumed operations, two restarting operations in the Midland and Delaware Basin during September and the third reactivated in the Eagle Ford during October. The Company expects to operate three drilling rigs and a single completion crew during the fourth quarter.
Recent project costs and well performance reflect a continuation of the operational efficiency levels achieved during the second quarter of 2020 and support the enhanced stacking and spacing efforts. Some of the highlights include:
The Eagle Ford wells placed on production late in the third quarter averaged over 2,000 feet of completed lateral per day
The combined six wells came in just below $475 per lateral foot with an average completed lateral length of approximately 7,500 feet
In the Delaware , the six-well Amphitheater pad was placed on production during the final days of the third quarter and first week of the fourth quarter, with the project averaging a completion pace of just under nine stages per day or nearly 1,800 lateral feet per day
The Amphitheater project averaged approximately 9,400 feet per well with an average well cost of less than $8 million ( $825 per lateral foot)
Initial production from the six-well Amphitheater pad recently reached a per well average of over 1,200 Boe per day (gross, ~84% oil) with total cumulative production of more than 140,000 Boe (gross, ~84% oil) in just over three weeks of production
Over 95% of the volumes sourced for the Amphitheater completions utilized recycled produced water volumes sourced from Callon's own recycling facilities
Delivered production of approximately 102.0 Mboe/d (63% oil), above expectations, for the third quarter of 2020 < Compares to my forecast of 94.0 Mboe/day in Q3.
Posted accrued operational capital spending of $38.4 million , below consensus estimates, and lowered the top end of operational capital range to $510 million , a 15% reduction since announcing the modified development program in May 2020
Generated net cash from operating activities of $135.7 million and free cash flow 1 of $80.3 million for the third quarter < Compares to my forecast of $133.7 million operating cash flow.
Loss available to common stockholders of $680.4 million , or $17.12 per fully diluted share, driven by an impairment of evaluated oil and gas properties of $685.0 million , adjusted EBITDA 1 of $170.9 million , and adjusted income per share 1 of $0.64 for the third quarter of 2020 < Adjusted Net Income compares to my forecast of $11.1 million, $0.28/share.
Achieved lease operating expense ("LOE") of $45.9 million or $4.89 per Boe for the third quarter of 2020, an improvement of approximately 10%, on an absolute basis, over the comparable three-month period ended June 30, 2020 < Compares to my LOE forecast of $6.00/boe.
Resumed completion and drilling activity with recent well costs for Eagle Ford and Delaware third quarter completions at $460 and $825 per lateral foot, respectively, exceeding previous targets as a result of continued operational efficiency gains
Increased liquidity to nearly $600 million and reduced total net debt by approximately $160 million after transaction expenses through a series of strategic transactions including the issuance of $300 million of secured second lien notes, an overriding royalty interest ("ORRI") transaction, and a non-operated working interest sale
Completed the fall borrowing base redetermination with a reaffirmed borrowing base of $1.7 billion which was subsequently reduced to $1.6 billion , reflecting a minimal reduction to account for the recent ORRI sale and second lien note issuance
Entered into a privately negotiated debt exchange of $286 million of unsecured Senior Notes for new second lien notes, reducing net debt by an estimated $128 million , with an option for the counterparties and their affiliates to exchange additional unsecured Senior Notes up to approximately $104 million
Joe Gatto , President and Chief Executive Officer commented, "During the third quarter, our operations team continued to execute on our cost reduction efforts, posting meaningful gains that bolstered our free cash flow generation to approximately $100 million over the last two quarters. These achievements coupled with our recent strategic initiatives to improve liquidity and propel our debt reduction efforts have placed us in a much better position as we look to close out 2020 with the resumption of moderated development across all three of our asset areas."
He continued, "Well performance from our modified stacking and spacing program has met or exceeded expectations, confirming the merits of our life-of-field development model that will preserve the future value of our inventory while simultaneously delivering near-term economic returns at current strip prices. Moreover, our focus on cost control and operational efficiency through scaled development is pushing us towards even lower cost thresholds that should generate improved cash flow and lower break-even pricing over time."
Mr. Gatto closed by sharing, "Alongside these operational and strategic achievements, we have continued to focus on operating safely, with a clear vision for reducing our environmental impact, maintaining our social awareness and treatment of our workforce, and strengthening our alignment with the needs of our shareholders. The recent issuance of our inaugural Sustainability report provides a clear and well-documented picture of where we stand and the path to continuously improving in each of these three critical areas. As we finalize the details of our 2021 budget and activity levels, our focus will be on our debt reduction efforts, maintaining a low cost development and operations structure, and creating durable and cogent changes that not only enhance shareholder returns but also positively impact our employees, communities, and our broader stakeholder group."
Private Debt Exchange
Callon also announced another meaningful step today in the execution of its deleveraging plan. On November 2nd , the Company entered into a privately negotiated agreement with certain holders of its outstanding unsecured debt securities to exchange $286 million of principal of the Company's existing unsecured Senior Notes (the "Senior Notes") for $158 million aggregate principal of new 9.00% Second Lien Notes due 2025, payable semi-annually (the "Second Lien Notes"), to be issued by Callon at a weighted average exchange ratio of approximately $555 per $1,000 of principal exchanged. Over 60% of the existing Senior Notes to be exchanged are due 2023 and 2024. Upon completion of the exchange, Callon's total net debt will be reduced by approximately $128 million and total cash interest expense by approximately $5 million .
In addition, certain other affiliated parties have the option to exchange up to an additional approximately $104 million of principal of Senior Notes under the same exchange terms. At full participation, the estimated total debt reduction and total cash interest expense reduction would be approximately $175 million and $7 million , respectively.
Participants in the exchange will also receive between 1.16 and 1.76 million warrants, dependent on final participation levels, with a strike price of $5.60 which is consistent with the strike price for the warrants issued recently in relation to the Company's initial issuance of Second Lien Notes that was announced on October 1st .
The private debt exchange is scheduled to close on November 17th . Callon currently expects the borrowing base under its credit facility to remain unchanged at $1.6 billion , and its next scheduled redetermination will take place in May 2021 .
Operations Update
At September 30, 2020, Callon had 1,479 gross (1,305.9 net) horizontal wells producing from established flow units in the Permian Basin and Eagle Ford Shale. Net daily production for the three months ended September 30, 2020 grew 170% to 102.0 Mboe/d (63% oil), as compared to the same period of 2019.
For the three months ended September 30, 2020, Callon drilled zero horizontal wells and placed a combined 12 gross (11.4 net) horizontal wells on production, all of which were turned to production late in the quarter. The Company reactivated two completion crews, one each in the Eagle Ford and Delaware Basin, both of which completed previously drilled multi-well projects during September. Subsequently, one of the two completion crews has been released and three drilling rigs have resumed operations, two restarting operations in the Midland and Delaware Basin during September and the third reactivated in the Eagle Ford during October. The Company expects to operate three drilling rigs and a single completion crew during the fourth quarter.
Recent project costs and well performance reflect a continuation of the operational efficiency levels achieved during the second quarter of 2020 and support the enhanced stacking and spacing efforts. Some of the highlights include:
The Eagle Ford wells placed on production late in the third quarter averaged over 2,000 feet of completed lateral per day
The combined six wells came in just below $475 per lateral foot with an average completed lateral length of approximately 7,500 feet
In the Delaware , the six-well Amphitheater pad was placed on production during the final days of the third quarter and first week of the fourth quarter, with the project averaging a completion pace of just under nine stages per day or nearly 1,800 lateral feet per day
The Amphitheater project averaged approximately 9,400 feet per well with an average well cost of less than $8 million ( $825 per lateral foot)
Initial production from the six-well Amphitheater pad recently reached a per well average of over 1,200 Boe per day (gross, ~84% oil) with total cumulative production of more than 140,000 Boe (gross, ~84% oil) in just over three weeks of production
Over 95% of the volumes sourced for the Amphitheater completions utilized recycled produced water volumes sourced from Callon's own recycling facilities
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Callon Petroleum (CPE) Q3 - Nov 4
Since CPE released Q3 results, 4 analysts have published new reports on CPE. Their price targets are $4.00, $7.00, 15.00 and $16.50 < Stifel.
There are 17 analysts price targets averaged into the First Call price target of $8.02, but most of them are dated before the Q3 earning release and they are using very low oil, gas and NGL prices in their valuations.
Book value per share is over $25/share and book value is net of $1,931.5 million of non-cash impairment charges taken this year.
My 2021 operating cash flow per share forecast is $14.73, which is just slightly higher than First Call's CFPS forecast of $14.24 (based on lower oil, gas and NGL prices).
Callon is generating free cash flow from operations this year, paying down debt and doesn't seem to have a liquidity problem. My valuation is $18.00/share.
There are 17 analysts price targets averaged into the First Call price target of $8.02, but most of them are dated before the Q3 earning release and they are using very low oil, gas and NGL prices in their valuations.
Book value per share is over $25/share and book value is net of $1,931.5 million of non-cash impairment charges taken this year.
My 2021 operating cash flow per share forecast is $14.73, which is just slightly higher than First Call's CFPS forecast of $14.24 (based on lower oil, gas and NGL prices).
Callon is generating free cash flow from operations this year, paying down debt and doesn't seem to have a liquidity problem. My valuation is $18.00/share.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group