May 1, 2010

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dan_s
Posts: 34471
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

May 1, 2010

Post by dan_s »

We now have 65 Founding Members. Our goal is to get to 200 members by the end of June.

Founding Members get a Premium Membership for half price and they keep the $125/year rate for as long as they maintain their memberships.

Today I will be working on several Sweet-16 forecast models. You can view my current forecast model for each Sweet-16 Portfolio company by going to the Sweet-16 tab and clicking on the company logo. You can even download it to Excel and play with production volumes or the commodity prices yourself to see how it effects the forecast EPS and cash flow per share.

Four months into the year the Sweet-16 Portfolio is up 23.4% YTD. Not too bad considering that five stocks are actually down for the year.

TransGlobe Energy (TGA) is up 124.3% to lead the pack. TGA is our only pure play on oil. The company has an impressive growth story and that will continue for years to come. With oil prices heading higher, TGA has a very good shot at $10/share this year.

Arena Resources (ARD) is down 14.4% on the year. The company will be merging with Sandridge (SD) and I will be dropping it from the S-16. I'm searching for a replacement. I will probably make the switch July 1. If you still own ARD I recommend selling it now and moving the funds to Gulfport (GPOR) which I believe is significantly undervalued by the Market right now. GPOR is heavily weighted to oil just like ARD. Another good choice would be PetroBank whick I consider to be a Core Holding quality stock. PetroBank trades in the U.S. on the Pink Sheet as PBEGF. Do not let the Pink Sheets scare you away as PetroBank is a high quality large-cap.

As I posted yesterday the big dip in ATP Oil & Gas (ATPG) share price this week is grossly overdone. I believe ATPG will be a double for us during the second half of this year.

Keep an eye on Ram Energy (RAME). I think they will report a small 1st quarter profit and it should then move quickly over $2.00 share. I'm working on Ram to get them to host one of our E-P Group luncheons later this year.

Dan
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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