Pioneer Natural Resources (PXD) Q4 Results - Feb 24

[dan_s]

Stifel's take:
Pioneer Natural Resources Company (PXD, $145.24, Buy; Target $162.00) -
Delivers a strong Q420, 2021 outlook largely in-line despite significant weather impact in Q121 - Derrick Whitfield -
We view this release as positive. The positives include: i) a total equivalent and oil production beat (0.9% and 0.4% above consensus) on lower than expected capex (8.7% below consensus), ii) an adjusted EBITDAX beat (9.9% above consensus) on better than expected oil/NGL pricing, iii) an increase to the base dividend (1.5% annualized yield) and the introduction of the variable dividend program mechanics (distribute 50% of 2021 post-dividend FCF in 2022), iv) updated compensation metrics with a greater emphasis on returns and ESG, and v) a 2021 outlook that is mostly in-line even before weather considerations. The only negative was a larger than expected impact on Q121 volumes from winter weather with total equivalent and oil production 9.8% and 10.8% below consensus. Net-net, Pioneer is delivering on consensus expectations despite a once-every-50-years storm impacting operations and highlighting why we view Pioneer as a fortress investment within the sector.

I will update my forecast/valuation model by Saturday.