EIA Weekly Petroleum Report - June 30

[dan_s]

Summary of Weekly Petroleum Data for the week ending June 25, 2021

U.S. crude oil refinery inputs averaged 16.3 million barrels per day during the week ending June 25, 2021 which was 187,000 barrels per day more than the previous week’s average. Refineries operated at 92.9% of their operable capacity last week. < As long as U.S. refineries run at more than 90% of capacity, draws from crude oil inventories will continue.
Gasoline production decreased last week, averaging 9.6 million barrels per day.
Distillate fuel production decreased last week, averaging 5.0 million barrels per day.

U.S. crude oil imports averaged 6.4 million barrels per day last week, decreased by 0.5 million barrels per day from the previous week. Over the past four weeks, crude oil imports averaged about 6.7 million barrels per day, 2.8% more than the same four-week period last year.
Total motor gasoline imports (including both finished gasoline and gasoline blending components) last week averaged 790,000 barrels per day, and distillate fuel imports averaged 245,000 barrels per day.

> U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) decreased by 6.7 million barrels from the previous week. At 452.3 million barrels, U.S. crude oil inventories are about 6% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Total motor gasoline inventories increased by 1.5 million barrels last week and are about 0% above the five year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline and blending components inventories both increased last week.
> Distillate fuel inventories decreased by 0.9 million barrels last week and are about 5% below the five year average for this time of year.
> Propane/propylene inventories increased by 1.2 million barrels last week and are about 17% below the five year average for this time of year < This is VERY BULLISH for NGL prices.
>> Total commercial petroleum inventories decreased by 4.6 million barrels last week. <

Total products supplied over the last four-week period averaged 20.0 million barrels a day, up by 13.3% from the same period last year.
Over the past four weeks, motor gasoline product supplied averaged 9.1 million barrels a day, up by 10.7% from the same period last year.
Distillate fuel product supplied averaged 4.0 million barrels a day over the past four weeks, up by 12.5% from the same period last year.
Jet fuel product supplied was up 83.5% compared with the same four week period last year. < Even jet fuel demand is ramping up faster than expected.

[geraldlong]

I wonder if comparisons to the 5 years 2015-2019 rather than 2016-2020 would be more stark. Given the incredibly high stocks of most of 2020 and lower consumption if comparisons to the 2015-2019 period might be more reflective of today's market and inventories.

[dan_s]

You are probably right. We use a lot more refined products than we did five years ago.

AEGIS Notes
EIA reported a draw of -6718 MBbls in U.S. crude-oil inventories for the week ending 6/25/2021. This was larger than the average estimate of -4418 MBbls as reported by Bloomberg.

Prices were up five minutes following the announcement, to $73.87, from $73.71 just before 9:30am.

Inventories for the US are now at a deficit of 88.38 MBbls to last year and a deficit of 34.08 MBbls to the five-year average.