Oil & Gas Prices - Sept 7

[dan_s]

Opening Prices:
> WTI is down $1.06 to $68.23/Bbl, and Brent is down 57c to $71.65/Bbl
> Natural gas is down 7.0c to $4.642/MMBtu.

AEGIS Notes
Oil

Oil prices gave up early morning gains as a rise in the dollar helped offset positive Chinese trade data
Hurricane Ida’ initial impact on the Gulf of Mexico production has been greater than any other storm in history
> Ida might not have been as destructive or deadly as previous Hurricanes to hit the Gulf Coast, but the effect on production has been greater so far (Bloomberg)
> As of Sunday, 1.52 MMBbl/d of oil production remains offline in the Gulf of Mexico (BSEE)
> Ida has been responsible for the loss of 16.8 MMBbl/d of output in the ten days since the first production platforms were evacuated
> That is 32% more crude than was lost to Katrina, and 42% more than to Gustav/Ike over the same period
> Ida will impact EIA's weekly petroleum report data for at least two weeks and we have thunderstorm activity in the Gulf of Mexico this week that will slow down the recovery activities.

Natural Gas


> Gas prices are trading 7c lower this morning, but the trend is UP. A change in trend would require a weekly close below $3.73. Buyers are in Control above $4.47.

> According to the Bureau of Safety and Environmental Enforcement (BSEE), nearly 81% or 1.8 Bcf/d of Gulf of Mexico (GoM) output is still offline
> The gas-weighted cooling degree-day count increased by ten over the weekend to 179, from 169 days on Friday, September 3

Northeast spot prices fall as gas-fired power gen dwindles
> Algonquin CG, Transco Z-6, and Iroquois Zone 2 posted double-digit losses of 58, 42.50c, and 29c over the weekend to trade near $3.43, $3.375, and $3.47/MMBtu
> The Eastern Gas, South, formerly known as Dom South, also fell 34.5c to $3.47
> The storm knocked out electricity for 130,000 customers in PA, NJ, and NY
> Natural-gas fired power generation has fallen by almost 4 Bcf/d since August 30 to 7.4 Bcf/d, a 35% reduction

[geraldlong]

Are there any estimates for NG storage reports this week updated for Hurricane Ida effects?

[dan_s]

Closing Prices:
> WTI prompt month (OCT 21) was down $0.94 on the day, to settle at $68.35/Bbl.
> NG prompt month (OCT 21) was down $0.144 on the day, to settle at $4.568/MMBtu.

My SWAG is that the natural gas storage build for the week ending Sept 3 will be ~40 Bcf, which compares to the 5-year average build of 62 Bcf.

Largest storage builds of the year are often in mid-Sept to mid-October.