EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Sept 9

[dan_s]

Working gas in storage was 2,923 Bcf as of Friday, September 3, 2021, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net increase of 52 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 592 Bcf less than last year at this time and 235 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,158 Bcf.
At 2,923 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range. < But the deficit to the 5-year average has increased for the last three weeks and has increased by 178 Bcf over the last 13 weeks (One quarter of a year). The 13-week increasing deficit to the 5-year average is a better indicator of the structural change in the U.S. natural gas market. Demand definitely exceeds supply and there is no near-term solution.

There are now just ten weeks left in the storage refill season and there is ZERO CHANCE that storage gets anywhere close to the 5-year average before the winter heating season begins. Plus, demand for US natural gas is much higher than it was five years ago.

If the weekly storage builds continue to be less than the 5-year average we should see the DEC21 NYMEX contract move over $6.00 early in November. At the time of this post the DEC21 futures contract is trading for $5.16.

If you do heat your home with propane, I recommend that you fill your tanks early and keep an extra tank or two in the garage. Propane inventories are 20% below the 5-year average and that is not enough to make it thru a normal winter.