Could we see $10/mcf ngas price in the U.S.?

[dan_s]

Natural Gas Prices Can Still Double From Here
By Alex Kimani for OilPrice.com - Sep 13, 2021, 4:00 PM CDT

Natural gas prices have hit their highest levels since 2014, outpacing oil and many other commodities. On Monday, natural gas futures were trading up 2.6% to $5.09 per million British thermal units (BTUs), their highest settlement price since February 2014. Natural gas prices are up 117.6% in the year-to-date, while the biggest nat. gas benchmark, the United States Natural Gas ETF, LP (NYSEARCA:UNG) is up 88.6% over the timeframe. The sticker shock is even greater in other key natural gas markets around the globe, with East Asian benchmark futures and European natural gas spot prices have climbed 4-5 times year-ago levels to $18 per MMBtu.

Yet, some experts are now saying that this rally is far from over.

Stan Brownell, an analyst at Argus Media, and Luke Jackson, an analyst at S&P Global Platts, figure that Henry Hub prices would have to jump to $10 or more to provide an incentive to fulfill domestic natural gas demand.

That would mean a doubling of natural gas prices from current levels to levels last seen in 2008 when the U.S. produced about 40% less natural gas.

Read More: https://oilprice.com/Energy/Natural-Gas ... -Here.html

[dan_s]

WSJ Online:
Natural-Gas Market Conditions Look Unnatural
Storage levels of the fuel look rather thin globally, while prices have surged. A cold winter in parts of the world could send prices even higher.

https://www.wsj.com/articles/natural-ga ... _permalink

[dan_s]

Samer Mosis, analyst at S&P Global Platts, noted that Asia still needs to build more supply than usual over September and October to reach comfortable levels heading into winter. Meanwhile, natural gas in storage in Europe is 16% below the five-year average and at a record low for September, according to the data provider. The hunger of international markets later this year will depend on some unwieldy variables, including how severe winter will be in other parts of the world, how quickly Russia starts up its controversial Nord Stream 2 pipeline and whether it revives its flow of natural gas to Europe.

A severe winter in the U.S. could mean that domestic markets may have to compete with hungry Asian and European buyers. If European and Asian natural-gas prices stay at their current levels, both Mr. Brownell and Luke Jackson, analyst at S&P Global Platts, figure that Henry Hub prices would have to jump to $10 or more to provide an incentive to fulfill domestic natural-gas demand. Prices haven’t been that high since 2008, when the U.S. was producing about 40% less natural gas.