EQT Corp (EQT) Q3 Results - Oct 27

[dan_s]

I will update my forecast/valuation model for EQT tomorrow.

PITTSBURGH, Oct. 27, 2021 /PRNewswire/ -- EQT Corporation (NYSE: EQT) today announced financial and operational results for the third quarter 2021.

Third Quarter and Other Highlights:

Sales volumes of 495 Bcfe, at high end of guidance

Total per unit operating costs of $1.25/Mcfe, in-line with guidance

Capital expenditures of $297 MM, in-line with guidance

Net cash provided by operating activities of $48 MM; free cash flow(1) of $99 MM

Increased full year 2021 free cash flow guidance by approximately $200 MM

Successfully executed sell-down of 525,000 Dth per day of MVP capacity

Secured 205,000 Dth per day of premium Rockies Express Pipeline capacity

Executed 10-year water service agreement with ETRN covering SWPA operations

President and CEO Toby Rice stated, "Now more than ever we are witnessing how important the role of natural gas is in the world's energy ecosystem. Within the last decade our industry, and specifically Appalachia, has leveraged technology and innovation to provide Americans with a low-cost, low-emissions, and reliable energy source. With increased pipeline and LNG export capacity, we are capable of delivering that same energy source on the world stage."

Rice continued, "We have spent the last two years positioning this company to maximize value creation by lowering our costs and improving price realizations. Today's announcement of our firm-transportation optimization through the sell-down of Mountain Valley Pipeline capacity and the addition of premium capacity to the Midwest is a continuation of these efforts. Improving our outlook further, in the last three months we have seen a structural shift in the natural gas macro-environment, pointing to a sustainable uplift in the forward curve and positioning EQT for robust long-term free cash flow generation from our deep inventory of high return drilling locations. We are excited by the trajectory of our business and the value being created for our shareholders."

[dan_s]

I have updated my forecast/valuation model, but I need to spend more time on it after the 10Q is available. For now, I am lowering my valuation by $5 to $36.

Two other analysts have updated their price targets since the Q3 results came out.
> Vincent Lovaglio at Mizuho Securities rates it a BUY with a price target of $35.00
"Even with ~$2.0Bn of expected hedging losses next year, we forecast leverage dropping comfortably below 1.5x, and with pricing locked in, we believe EQT is positioned to announce a cash return framework early next year. At $3.30/mcf gas long-term, we forecast ~$2.3Bn free cash flow annually good for a 25%+ free cash yield. We maintain our Buy rating."
> Gabriele Sorbara Siebert Williams Shank & Co rated it a HOLD with a price target of $25.00

At the time of this post, EQT was trading at $21.04