Oil & Gas Prices - Dec 23

[dan_s]

Happy Christmas Eve Eve! There are lots of people hitting the road today for the holidays. We will be heading to Dallas early tomorrow.

Opening Prices:
> WTI is up 17c to $72.93/Bbl, and Brent is up 18c to $75.47/Bbl.
> Natural gas is down 16.8c to $3.808/MMBtu.

AEGIS Notes
Oil

WTI is trading near a four-week high as EIA reported a large inventory draw
> The EIA reported a draw of 4.7-MMBbls in crude inventories
> According to Reuters, the large draw can be attributed in part to year-end tax considerations, which dents imports, and strong refinery runs in the U.S. Gulf Coast
> Gasoline stocks rose by a build of 5.5-MMBbl build, compared with expectations of a 467-MBbl build
> Gasoline price, NYMEX Gasoline crack is up on reports of an explosion at ExxonMobil Baytown refinery

The Baytown refinery is the nation’s fourth-largest, with capacity of 560 MBbl/d
> Production was reduced across the Baytown refining and petrochemical complex in August 2019 because of a fire in a propylene recovery unit at the olefins plant
> The NYMEX gasoline crack is up 5.6%, to $19.343

Natural Gas

The prompt-month Henry Hub contract (Jan ’22) is down by 16c, to $3.808/MMBtu
> The gas-weighted heating degree day forecast for December decreased by 5 HDDs to 679 HDDs
> Production is up by about 0.106 Bcf/d this morning, to a December high of 95.5 Bcf/d
> LNG feedgas demand is down by 0.2 Bcf/d, to 12.7 Bcf/d
> Solar power dropped to a multi-month low of 4.7 GW as it makes its seasonal trek lower

European power prices hit new records as France prices hit EUR700/MWh for the January contract
> TTF settled below the record highs seen earlier this week at $57.41, as Russian gas exports to Europe have fallen even further this morning. Some buyers of long-term contracts have reportedly hit their contractual limits for the year
> In Gazprom's call with analysts and investors today, the did not shed any light on their rationale for withholding gas

The EIA is expected to report a 57-Bcf withdrawal for the week ending December 17, which would be smaller than the 147-Bcf draw in the corresponding week of last year and the five-year average draw of 153 Bcf
> Analysts estimates ranged from a draw of 50 Bcf to 66 Bcf
> A draw within this range would bring total stocks near 3.336 Tcf and the deficit to the five-year average would move to a 32 Bcf surplus
> Over the past five weeks, the survey has missed the EIA estimate by an average of 2 Bcf

[dan_s]

BAYTOWN, Texas (AP) — Crews were working to extinguish a large fire at a Houston-area refinery that broke out early Thursday, injuring four people.

The fire started at about 1 a.m. at ExxonMobil's refinery in Baytown, which is about 25 miles (40 kilometers) east of Houston. Four people were injured but everyone else on site has been accounted for, said Rohan Davis, the refinery's manager.

Three of the injured were taken to hospitals by helicopter while the fourth was taken by ambulance, Harris County Sheriff Ed Gonzalez said.

The cause of the fire is not yet known. ExxonMobil said air quality monitoring has not revealed any issues. No evacuations or shelter-in-place orders have been issued.

The refinery, located along the Houston Ship Channel, has the capacity to process up to 584,000 barrels of crude oil each day. It employs about 7,000 people, according to the company's website.