Sweet 16 Update - March 17

[dan_s]

Susan controls my travel schedule. She says we are driving up to Dallas on Friday to visit her two favorite grandchildren Miss Drake and Mister Wilson. I will check the Forum on Saturday and I will be at my desk in Sugar Land on Monday.

So, I updated the main Sweet 16 spreadsheet and it will be posted to the EPG website this evening.
> Under tab one you can see my full-year EPS and Operating CFPS forecasts for each company in the Sweet 16.
> You can also see the market-cap of each company; from ESTE at $1.4 billion to EOG at $70.7 billion.
> The "Elite Eight" are highlighted in yellow. They all have A+ safety ratings.
> You can also compare how each company's market-cap compares to their book value. All of the Sweet 16 will be profitable and generate a lot of free cash flow this year. They should all be trading at several multiples of book value.

Under Tab Two
> See what each stock has gained YTD. RRC and AR, two large gassers lead the pack. < I am getting more bullish about ngas and NGL prices each day.
> You can see how my updated current valuation compares to First Call's price targets, which BTW have been drifting steadily toward my valuations.
> CRK and ESTE are trading today at less than half of my valuations.
> CTRA is closest to my valuation, but IMO still has 28% upside.
> On the far right side of tab 2 you can see the proven reserves and PV10 valuations of each company's P1 reserves. PV10 valuations are based on much lower oil, gas and NGL prices than we today. NONE of the Sweet 16 should be trading below their PV10 Net Asset Value of just their P1 reserves. < (PV10 of P1 reserves - total debt) / total shares outstanding.

[Fraser921]

Sweet! Enjoy your weekend!

When's the video coming out?

[dan_s]

I will record a podcast on Sunday after we drive back from Dallas.

The Sweet 16 gained 1.2% this week thru Thursday's close and is now up 31.45% YTD. The S&P 500 Index gained 4.24%, but is still down 7.55% YTD.

Overall market was happy the Feds only raised the interest rate 0.25%, but they will need to keep raising the interest rate. Inflation is definitely here to stay for probably several years. Commodity prices are way up and I can't believe that inflations is just 10%. Food prices are way up and I think we may see food shortages. My advice is that all of you keep lots of canned goods in the panty.

Diesel prices are going to impact food prices.
https://www.msn.com/en-us/foodanddrink/ ... ory=foryou