Oil & Gas Prices - June 13

[dan_s]

Opening Prices:
> WTI is down $1.53 to $119.14/bbl, and Brent is down $1.39 to $120.62/bbl.
> Natural gas is down -4.3c to $8.807/MMBtu.

AEGIS Notes
Oil

China began to re-implement COVID-19 restrictions just weeks after considerable relaxation in key cities such as Shanghai
> The nation reported 143 cases on Sunday as the number of new infections increased, and 45 additional cases were recorded today in Beijing, necessitating widespread testing. This uptick in COVID-19 cases in Beijing could dampen expectations for a Chinese oil demand rebound. < Considering how tiny the number of new cases is compared to millions of people that live in Shanghai and Beijing, it puzzles me why the Chinese governments would implement new lockdowns.

Libya's oil production has almost completely halted as a result of the political crisis (BBG)
> Exports were ceased last week after protesters shut the two key eastern oil ports of Es Sider and Ras Lanuf
> The OPEC member’s daily output has dropped by roughly 1.1 MMBbl/d from last year's average of 1.2 MMBbl/d, according to Oil Minister Mohamed Oun, suggesting the nation is pumping only about 100 MBbl/d. < If this situation continues, it will have a significant impact on Europe's oil supply.

Natural Gas

Record heat is expected to hit the Central U.S. on Monday
> Temperatures could hit record highs. St Louis has a high forecast of 101 °F and will only drop to 79 °F overnight. < I grew up in South St. Louis (1954 to 1972) and we did not have air conditioning until I was in high school and then it was just one window unit that did not cool my bedroom much.
> There are huge areas of the central United States that are under heat advisory warning, and the record high temperatures are expected to persist for a few days, reaching a peak on Wednesday
> The overnight temperatures are also supposed to set even more records that could lead to even more concerns for the electricity load that will be required to cool these parts of the country
> Texas even set a state record for electricity consumption on Sunday, and those temperatures are forecast to continue

QatarEnergy strikes a deal with TotalEnergies for North Field East Project
> TotalEnergies Chief Executive Patrick Pouyanne said the company would have 25% of one train - or liquefaction and purification facility - in the project, the largest stake among foreign companies
> The North Field Expansion plan includes six LNG trains that will ramp up Qatar’s liquefaction capacity from 77 mtpa (10.08 Bcf/d) to 126 mtpa (16.5 Bcf/d) by 2027

[dan_s]

The effects of Russia’s sudden disappearance from the world energy market are becoming painfully obvious. Some of Europe’s biggest industries, which have been dependent on cheap Russian energy for decades, are grinding to a halt.

Chemicals, fertilizer, steel, and other energy-intensive products are skyrocketing in price, forcing buyers to turn elsewhere. Factories in the Middle East and United States are scrambling to soak up the excess demand.

Putin has already cut ties with multiple European countries for refusing his demands for payment exclusively in rubles. It’s a scorched-earth policy if I’ve ever seen one: Putin is tanking the Russian economy, but he’s not above dragging Europe down with him.

Keith Kohl
Energy Investor
6-13-2022

[dan_s]

AEGIS NOTES: Last Look - WTI wobbles but finishes higher | Gas extends losses

Closing Prices:
> Prompt-Month WTI (Jul 22) was up $0.26 on the day, to settle at $120.93
> Prompt-Month Henry Hub (Jul 22) was down $-0.241 on the day, to settle at $8.609