Antero Resources (AR) Q2 Results - July 27

[dan_s]

Second Quarter 2022 Highlights Include:

Net production averaged 3.2 Bcfe/d, including 166 MBbl/d of liquids < My Q2 forecast was 3.195 Bcfepd with 168,500 bpd of liquids.

Realized pre-hedge natural gas equivalent price of $8.00 per Mcfe, an $0.83 per Mcfe premium to NYMEX pricing

Net income was $765 million, Adjusted Net Income was $563 million (Non-GAAP) < Adjusted Net Income compares to my forecast of $615 million ($1.98/share)

Adjusted EBITDAX was $953 million (Non-GAAP); net cash provided by operating activities was $923 million

Free Cash Flow was $664 million before Changes in Working Capital (Non-GAAP)

Reduced total debt by $383 million during the quarter < Good

Purchased $247 million of shares during the quarter < Very Good

Net Debt at quarter end was $1.58 billion (Non-GAAP)

Net Debt to trailing last twelve month Adjusted EBITDAX declined to 0.6x (Non-GAAP) < This is EXTREMELY GOOD

Paul Rady, Chairman, Chief Executive Officer and President of Antero Resources commented, "Antero's second quarter results benefited from outstanding operations that included higher premiums to benchmark pricing and excellent well performance. Strong demand for natural gas along the LNG fairway has led to as much as a $0.25 per MMBtu increase in positive basis pricing on the Gulf Coast since the beginning of 2022. As additional LNG facilities are placed in service we anticipate the premium in basis pricing relative to NYMEX Henry Hub to increase further. We are uniquely positioned to directly benefit from increasing NYMEX prices with 75% of our natural gas being sold at these premium priced hubs in the LNG corridor." < All of our large-cap "gassers" (AR, EQT, CRK, CTRA and RRC) have very good marketing teams that can take advantage of the "Mother of All Bidding Wars" that is likely to create BIG spot market premiums as winter approaches.

Mr. Rady continued, "Our strong well performance led to second quarter volumes above prior forecasts. Looking ahead, our five-year development program remains focused on this liquids-rich regime. Our liquids-rich development plan, consistent well results and coordinated midstream buildout with Antero Midstream provide us with confidence that we will continue to execute on our maintenance capital plan. This allows us to deliver on our production targets and generate attractive Free Cash Flow for years to come."

Michael Kennedy, Chief Financial Officer of Antero Resources said, "During the second quarter, we accelerated our return of capital program by purchasing approximately $250 million of shares. At the same time, we reduced debt by nearly $400 million resulting in leverage of just 0.6x. As previously communicated, we intend to increase our return of capital during the second half of 2022 to greater than 50% of Free Cash Flow. Based on today's commodity prices, we anticipate full-year 2022 shareholder returns to be at the high end of our previously announced target of 25% to 50% of 2022 Free Cash Flow. We expect in excess of $2.5 billion of Free Cash Flow in 2022 and over $10 billion of Free Cash Flow through 2026, based on current backwardated commodity prices. Today's balance sheet strength and a strong Free Cash Flow outlook will allow us to deliver increasing capital returns to our shareholders."

[dan_s]

Debt Reduction < This is the #1 reason that AR leads the Sweet 16 and is now up more than 600% since 1-1-2021.

As of June 30, 2022, Antero's total debt was $1.58 billion. Net Debt to trailing twelve-month Adjusted EBITDAX was 0.6x. During the second quarter, Antero reduced total debt by $383 million, including a $317 million reduction in borrowings under the credit facility. During the quarter, Antero also repurchased $62 million aggregate principle amount of senior notes in the open market and reduced its convertible debt outstanding by $4 million.

Share Repurchase Program

During the second quarter of 2022, Antero purchased 6.7 million shares at an average weighted price of $36.66 per share for $247 million. For the first six months of 2022, Antero purchased 11 million shares at a weighted average price of $32.44 per share for $358 million. These purchases include repurchases of $100 million in the first quarter of 2022 and $193 million in the second quarter of 2022 under the share repurchase program and results in $707 million remaining under the Board of Directors authorized share repurchase program. Based on current strip prices and market conditions, Antero anticipates repurchasing this remaining amount of $707 million under the plan in 2022.

[dan_s]

My current valuation will be going up tomorrow, but I want to listen to their CC and spend more time on the details in the 10Q.

Why? The strength of AR's balance sheet and their "running room" deserves a higher valuation multiple. Rising capex budget should be the only negative raised by some of the more conservative energy sector analysts, but IMO shareholders should like a more aggressive drilling program to take advantage of very strong ngas and NGL prices.

For those of you new to AR, less than 2% of their production is crude oil. So, oil prices have very impact on my valuation.

[Fraser921]

I just listen to the CC call. very bullish. It was noted by AR , that they are cheaper today on a FCF yield, than at year end when the name was at 20!

I bought more on the insane markdown early in the day.