Real Russian propaganda

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Fraser921
Posts: 2955
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:48 am

Real Russian propaganda

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Russia Russia Russia. The Energy Report 12/30/2022
By Phil Flynn On December 30, 2022 - 9:12 AM · In Market Commentaries, Phil Flynn Energy Report

There used to be a lot of talk about Russia and its attempts to influence our elections but was the real issue about Russia’s influence over our energy policies? Did Russia fund extreme environmental groups and spread misinformation about the US oil and gas industry in an attempt to get the US to pull back from the US shale revolution thereby giving Russia more sway over global oil supply and price? Well, that is a charge made by the National Review. In an article about New England winter-related blackouts, they wrote, “blue states gave their constituents the “gift” of blackouts and high electric bills thanks to Kremlin-backed environmental groups that have prevented these states from building pipeline infrastructure and kept them dependent on foreign energy.”

Now I know what you are thinking. The National Review leans right and that perhaps this is just more misinformation. Yet it makes a lot more sense that the debunked theory that Trump’s campaign colluded with the Russians that was started with dirty tricks by the Clinton campaign. Bloomberg News reported that, “Hillary Clinton personally signed off on a plan in 2016 to quietly pitch to the media the now-discredited theory that computer servers at Donald Trump’s company had a secret communications link with a Russian bank, her former campaign manager told a jury.” I think that was after Mrs. Clinton gave Russia the reset button.

The National Review pointed to a report from the Daily Caller from 2015 that said, “A shell corporation with ties to a Russian state oil interest “donated” $23 million to an environmental bundler which passed the funds to The Sierra Club, the Natural Resources Defense Council (NRDC), and the League of Conservation Voters according to a new report by the Environmental Policy Alliance. The NRDC, The Sierra Club, and the League of Conversation Voters accepted donations of $13.5, $15, and $18.1 million from the Sea Change Foundation. The Sea Change Foundation got $23 million from the shell corporation Klein Ltd, which “only exists on paper.” Klein Ltd has deep ties to Russian energy investment groups like Firebird New Russia Fund and Vimpelcom Ltd. Klein Ltd is incorporated in the Bahamas and thus doesn’t have to disclose its donors. The report shows that high-level Russian oil and political interests fund and support American environmental groups which then launch attacks on the U.S. natural gas and oil industry. These attacks lead to new regulations and restrictions on American oil, which reduces the amount of international competition for Russian produces.”

Well, you can take those reports with a grain of salt. Yet the reality is that global concern about the path that led Europe and the US to a growing dependence on Russia for oil and gas has had an impact on the war with Ukraine, the global oil price and the global economy.

Now it would appear as if the world that’s trying to come together to stand up against Russia understands the problem is that Biden’s release from the Strategic Petroleum Reserve will soon come to an end. With China reopening, it’s going to be a challenge to meet global demand. We are starting to see that in The Energy Information Administration (EIA) Weekly Petroleum Status Report.

The EIA reported that even with another 3.5 million barrels released from the SPR that U.S. commercial crude oil inventories increased by only 700.000 barrels. At 419.0 million barrels, U.S. crude oil

inventories are about 6% below the five-year average for this time of year. US refiners ramped up output in another heroic effort as refineries operated at 92.0% of their operable capacity last week. Gasoline production increased last week, averaging 10.1 million barrels per day. Distillate fuel production slightly decreased last week, still averaging 5.1 million barrels per day.0.7 million barrels from the previous week.

Still, the EIA reported that gasoline inventories fell by 3.1 million barrels from last week and are about 4% below the five-year average for this time of year. Finished gasoline inventories increased while blending components inventories decreased last week. Distillate fuel inventories increased by 0.3 million barrels last week and are about 7% below the five-year average for this time of year.

This is a very supportive report even as the market frets about rising covid cases in China. I think that the fear that China’s covid surge will cause China to reverse course is wrong. I think China, even though they have built its inventories, will start to drain global supply. 

I am largely in agreement with hedge fund trader Pierre Andurand. Mr. Andurand, according to Bloomberg News, said that global oil demand could soar as much as 4%. He said that oil consumption has been lagging long-term trends and — bolstered by a switch to oil from gas — may increase by 3 million to 4 million barrels a day in 2023, according to posts on Twitter.

It’s a bad report for the only major energy source that does not emit greenhouse gas emissions. The Energy Information Administration reported that in 2021, for the second consecutive year, U.S. nuclear electricity generation declined. Output from U.S. nuclear power plants totaled 778 million megawatt-hours in 2021, or 1.5% less than the previous year. Nuclear’s share of U.S. electricity generation across all sectors in 2021 was similar to its average share in the previous decade: 19%.

Six nuclear-generating units with a total capacity of 4,736 megawatts (MW) have retired since the end of 2017. Three more reactors with a combined 3,009 MW of capacity are scheduled to retire in the coming years: Michigan’s Palisades is scheduled to retire later this year, and California’s Diablo Canyon is slated to retire one generating unit in 2024 and one in 2025.

On the flip side of that, the International Energy Agency IEA reported that global coal consumption is set to rise to an all-time high in 2022 and remain at similar levels in the next few years if stronger efforts are not made to move to a low-carbon economy. Gee, I wonder if there is a source of energy that would not emit greenhouse gases but could replace all the coal plants in the world.

Natural gas got crushed on the big thaw! Got to love warm weather unless you’re long natural gas. The EIA said that working gas in storage was 3,112 Bcf as of Friday, December 23, 2022, according to EIA estimates. This represents a net decrease of 213 Bcf from the previous week. Stocks were 133 Bcf less than last year at this time and 85 Bcf below the five-year average of 3,197 Bcf. At 3,112 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.
dan_s
Posts: 34471
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Real Russian propaganda

Post by dan_s »

To me the most puzzling fact is that we keep retiring nuclear plants, the only energy source that is carbon emissions free. Why aren't the "Wackos" going crazy that Europe is bringing back more coal fired power plants???
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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