Oil & Gas Prices - Feb 7

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dan_s
Posts: 34471
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Oil & Gas Prices - Feb 7

Post by dan_s »

Opening Prices
> WTI is up $1.37 to $75.48/bbl, and Brent is up $1.24 to $82.23/bbl.
> Natural gas is up 5.7c to $2.514/MMBtu.

AEGIS Notes
Oil

Oil extends gains amid short-term supply outages and expectations of a rebound in Chinese demand
March ’23 WTI gained nearly $1.37 this morning to trade above $75/Bbl
Saudi Arabia unexpectedly raised rates for its primary market Asia indicating its optimism in oil demand
An earthquake in Turkey halted oil flows to the Ceyhan oil terminal, and technical issues in one of Norway's North Sea oil fields also halted production
Additionally, the market awaits comments on monetary policy from Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell

Saudi Arabia raised its prices for crude that will be shipped to Asia in March (Bloomberg)
Saudi’s flagship Arab Light grade to Asia for March loadings was increased by $0.20/Bbl to a premium of $2.00/Bbl over the Dubai/Oman average
This is the first price hike in six months and indicates that Saudi Arabia might be optimistic about an oil demand rebound

Iraq hopes to resume flowing oil through Turkey to the Ceyhan terminal as soon as today, according to an official from SOMO, the country's state oil-marketing company (Bloomberg)
The official added that the pipes were checked, and “there was no damage to them or to the storage tanks”
Supplies to Turkey’s Ceyhan export terminal were halted following an earthquake on February 5
In January, the port exported more than 1 MMBbl/d or 1% of global supplies

Norway’s Equinor said it halted output at the largest North Sea oil field due to a technical issue
Output from Phase 1 of the Johan Sverdrup field (500,000 Bbl/d) was halted on Monday after an issue with the cooling system
According to a company spokesman, the problem was being repaired, and the disruption was expected to last at least two days

Natural Gas

Natural gas prices are up 3% to $2.51 in the prompt month today
Weather forecasts cooled in the 11-15 day period, with the Lower 48 forecast losing 5.5 °F, mostly from the Northeast and Midwest regions

LNG developer criticizes FERC over delays (Reuters)
NextDecade said on Monday that delays in reviewing information for its proposed $15.7 billion Rio Grande export facility were inexcusable
The export plant has been stalled due to a ruling by a federal appeals court that argues that the original approval did not consider impacts on the climate
The CEO of NextDecade said, “It is patently clear that an ongoing, 18-month process to address two questions remanded to the Commission is inexcusable,"
The company believes it will move ahead with financial approval for phase one of the project this quarter

Most new electricity generating capacity this year will come from solar (Reuters)
According to the EIA, developers are planning to install 54.5 GW of new generating capacity in 2023, with 29.1 GW being utility-scale solar projects
Texas and California will have the most solar additions this year, with those two states accounting for 41% of additions
If all planned projects are completed on time, 2023 will be a record-setting year for solar installations
Developers also plan to more than double the amount of existing battery capacity this year, from 8.8 GW to 18.2 GW
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34471
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Feb 7

Post by dan_s »

(Bloomberg) -- Oil rose with traders interpreting Saudi
Arabia’s surprise hike of its crude prices as a signal of
confidence in China’s demand outlook.
The more-than-$2 dollar boost to West Texas Intermediate on
Tuesday came after Saudi Aramco increased most of its official
selling prices for shipments to Asia in March. The decision
confirms that the oil titans see China’s demand likely rising in
the next month, said Daniel Ghali, a commodity strategist at TD
Securities.
“The data that we’re tracking, which includes international
flight activity, suggests a significant boom in Chinese travel
demand,” Ghali said. “That alone, we expect, is going to
translate to a 1.4 million increase in oil demand this year.”

Oil has fluctuated in a relatively narrow range so far this
year, with the global Brent benchmark swinging between about $80
and $90 a barrel. While traders are awaiting more signs of
stronger Chinese demand, that has been offset by indications of
oversupply in the near term.
Markets might get further direction later today from Fed
Chair Jerome Powell who is set to speak and the Energy
Information Administration’s release of weekly data on
Wednesday.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34471
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Feb 7

Post by dan_s »

(Bloomberg) -- (Updates with global figures starting in
fourth bullet point)
* U.S. crude oil production in 2024 is forecast at 12.65m b/d,
compared with 12.81m b/d projected in January, EIA says in
monthly Short-Term Energy Outlook
* 2023 output estimated at 12.49m b/d vs 12.41m b/d
** Highest estimate since September
* Output to grow annually in 2024 at an average rate of 160k b/d
vs prior forecast of 400k b/d
* Global oil and liquids production seen at 101.10m b/d this
year and 102.61m b/d in 2024
* Worldwide oil consumption projected at 100.47m b/d this year
and 102.26m b/d in 2024
** READ, Jan. 10: EIA Sees 2024 U.S. Crude Output 3.2% Higher
Than in 2023
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34471
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Oil & Gas Prices - Feb 7

Post by dan_s »

Last Look - Oil surges to highest in nearly a week | Gas extends gains

> Prompt-Month WTI (Mar 23) was up $3.03 on the day, to settle at $77.14
> Prompt-Month Henry Hub (Mar 23) was up $0.127 on the day, to settle at $2.584
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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