Avoid all gassers until further notice
The strip is down 4-7 % just today
March hit 2.367 today!!
CRK should sell for 7 with these prices
One year ago, CRK was 7 with March 2023 NG was 4.00
Why should it sell for 12 when NG is 2.36???
Makes no sense
Natural Gas is getting crushed
Re: Natural Gas is getting crushed
"Getting Crushed" is a bit of a stretch. All of our gassers are operating cash flow positive at current ngas prices.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
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JimRudwall
- Posts: 2
- Joined: Fri Aug 05, 2022 12:21 pm
Re: Natural Gas is getting crushed
Regarding CRK, spoken like a true short. Just how short of CRK are you?
Re: Natural Gas is getting crushed
In general, we don't really play the Troll game here, so if anyone is implying that Frazer is trying to manipulate or front-run this group for then that person is out of step with this message board. Frazer is not short Comstock but he did lose money on the trade. I know that because I've followed his comments over the last year and so I know his entry points, generally speaking. I respectfully disagree that "crushed" doesn't adequately describes this natural gas market. Comstock down from $20 to $11'ish certainty qualifies under that label. Depressing!
Re: Natural Gas is getting crushed
I'm not short anything. I call it as I see it. It's an opinion. People confuse opinions with facts. I have no clue what will happen in the future. No one does. It's my opinion that 2.50 NG is not good for the gassers
Actually, the reason I am a member of EPG is I'm very very bullish on energy due to lame energy policies. And investing in this sector is a constant education. I've been burnt many times last 15 years in energy and yet I come back. The main thing that drives prices is cash flow from the business. Crap prices does nothing for cash flow. I try not to make the same mistake twice.
I rode CHK down from 80 to bankruptcy
When the thesis changes you have to be honest with yourself and make adjustments. NG is down from 10 to 2.50.I call that being crushed. Ive been long crk as low as 4 bucks. I've been long CRK 17-20 Ive been long AR around same number. Ive been long CTRA, SBOW, SWN, & CHK.
I'm shocked that it got this low. The winter has been warm in the US and Europe. Supplies have been growing. More supply and less demand = lower prices. You know that don't you?
I'm out of all of them at the moment. I'm not a buy and hold type. I'm willing to take a profit. I listen to every conference call and study this at least 8 hours a day 7 days a week.
Some people don't invest in any of these names but focus on dividends for income. I like cap gains and want to avoid cap losses. CRK is down from 20 to 12. I might get back in it if it cracks single digits or when NG improves to 3.50 or better
If my comments move markets, I suggest you don't piss me off
If you think 2.50 NG is bullish , buy the gassers
Actually, the reason I am a member of EPG is I'm very very bullish on energy due to lame energy policies. And investing in this sector is a constant education. I've been burnt many times last 15 years in energy and yet I come back. The main thing that drives prices is cash flow from the business. Crap prices does nothing for cash flow. I try not to make the same mistake twice.
I rode CHK down from 80 to bankruptcy
When the thesis changes you have to be honest with yourself and make adjustments. NG is down from 10 to 2.50.I call that being crushed. Ive been long crk as low as 4 bucks. I've been long CRK 17-20 Ive been long AR around same number. Ive been long CTRA, SBOW, SWN, & CHK.
I'm shocked that it got this low. The winter has been warm in the US and Europe. Supplies have been growing. More supply and less demand = lower prices. You know that don't you?
I'm out of all of them at the moment. I'm not a buy and hold type. I'm willing to take a profit. I listen to every conference call and study this at least 8 hours a day 7 days a week.
Some people don't invest in any of these names but focus on dividends for income. I like cap gains and want to avoid cap losses. CRK is down from 20 to 12. I might get back in it if it cracks single digits or when NG improves to 3.50 or better
If my comments move markets, I suggest you don't piss me off
If you think 2.50 NG is bullish , buy the gassers
Re: Natural Gas is getting crushed
By the way, I'm interested in everyone 's opinion both bullish , bearish, or in between. I'm flexible enough to change my thinking if someone has a thought that's different. So post your opinion!
Dan recently pointed out that NG companies will still earn good cash due to low production costs and a chance for colder weather in March.
They say low prices will cure low prices. If these companies stay disciplined and with Freeport coming back online maybe things will improve.
Aegis hedging is bearish in 2023 and bullish in 2024. The best money is made buying low and not chasing at the top.
Best
Dan recently pointed out that NG companies will still earn good cash due to low production costs and a chance for colder weather in March.
They say low prices will cure low prices. If these companies stay disciplined and with Freeport coming back online maybe things will improve.
Aegis hedging is bearish in 2023 and bullish in 2024. The best money is made buying low and not chasing at the top.
Best
Re: Natural Gas is getting crushed
The gassers will likely stay disciplined primarily due to takeaway constraints. The associated gas coming from Permian,Eagleford, Anadarko and other basins when oil drilling ramps is usually the downer. Those whose hedges seemed wrong a few months ago suddenly are looking much better.
Re: Natural Gas is getting crushed
Down to 2.26!!
Thats below cost. This will be a huge problem to unhedgers
CRK mentioned they are laying down rigs. This will spill over to the service providers.
I tried to help you guys. That's why you pay me the big bucks!
PS > I wish I was short
I define that as a crush. How about you? A little dipsy doo?
Thats below cost. This will be a huge problem to unhedgers
CRK mentioned they are laying down rigs. This will spill over to the service providers.
I tried to help you guys. That's why you pay me the big bucks!
PS > I wish I was short
I define that as a crush. How about you? A little dipsy doo?
Re: Natural Gas is getting crushed
Aegis used the word plummet! Gas plummets to lowest since September 2020
Are they short??
======================================================================
Prompt-Month Henry Hub (Mar 23) was down $-0.114 on the day, to settle at $2.275
Prompt-Month WTI (Mar 23) was down $-2.15 on the day, to settle at $76.34
Our February 16th Energy Market Webcast is Now Available to Watch On-Demand
https://info.aegis-hedging.com/webcast- ... e=hs_email
Are they short??
======================================================================
Prompt-Month Henry Hub (Mar 23) was down $-0.114 on the day, to settle at $2.275
Prompt-Month WTI (Mar 23) was down $-2.15 on the day, to settle at $76.34
Our February 16th Energy Market Webcast is Now Available to Watch On-Demand
https://info.aegis-hedging.com/webcast- ... e=hs_email