I will update my forecast/valuation model in the morning. On the surface everything looks good. Guidance for 2023 will be key to my valuation.
Fourth Quarter 2022 Operational and Financial Highlights
Record quarterly average production of 111,700 BOE per day (62,300 barrels of oil per day), <Beat my forecast of 106,000 Boepd (61,000 bpd of oil).
Net cash provided by operating activities of $446.5 million < Close to my forecast of $453.7 million.
Adjusted free cash flow of $249.3 million
Net income of $253.8 million, or $2.11 per diluted common share
Adjusted net income of $249.9 million, or $2.08 per diluted common share < Compares to my forecast of $264.8 million net income.
Adjusted EBITDA of $461.8 million
San Mateo net income of $37.0 million
San Mateo Adjusted EBITDA of $52.3 million
Increased quarterly dividend policy to $0.15 per diluted common share, or $0.60 per annum, a 50% increase
Matador Resources (MTDR) Q4 Results - Feb 21
Matador Resources (MTDR) Q4 Results - Feb 21
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Matador Resources (MTDR) Q4 Results - Feb 21
This is why the stock is down this morning. The production issues explained below should have no long-term impact on the valuation of MTDR.
First and Second Quarter 2023 Production Estimates
As noted in the table above, Matador expects its average daily total production to decrease 10% sequentially from 111,700 BOE per day in the fourth quarter of 2022 to approximately 101,000 BOE per day in the first quarter of 2023. The Company’s first quarter 2023 production volumes have been impacted by several factors that have deferred portions of its anticipated first quarter production to the second quarter of 2023, including (i) production shut-in on 17 wells in the Rodney Robinson leasehold while the Company conducts hydraulic fracturing operations on nine new wells, including incremental shut-ins originally anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2022 that were deferred to the first quarter of 2023; and (ii) more wells than originally anticipated being shut-in across our other asset areas while offset operators conduct hydraulic fracturing operations adjacent to our properties. Another circumstance impacting production in the first quarter of 2023 is the fact that the 24 gross (15.4 net) operated horizontal wells turned to sales in the fourth quarter of 2022 had an average working interest of 64%, as compared to an average working interest of 88% for operated horizontal wells turned to sales in the first nine months of 2022. As a result of these factors, the wells turned to sales during the fourth quarter of 2022 are expected to be less impactful to net production in the first quarter of 2023 than otherwise would be expected with higher interest wells. In addition, most of the operated wells Matador expects to turn to sales in the first quarter of 2023, including all eight Rodney Robinson wells, are not expected online until the latter half of the quarter and will not fully contribute to production in the first quarter.
Matador anticipates its second quarter 2023 average daily total production to increase sequentially by 16 to 18%, as compared to the first quarter of 2023, with average daily oil production anticipated to increase by 25 to 26%. This significant sequential increase is primarily attributable to the anticipated closing of the Advance acquisition in the second quarter. Any delays in the anticipated closing date could result in less production recorded in the second quarter of 2023 than currently forecasted. Matador’s production estimates for 2023 only include production from the Advance properties following closing of the acquisition, which is expected to occur in the second quarter of 2023, because any production revenues from the Advance assets prior to the closing date will be part of the purchase price adjustment at closing.
First and Second Quarter 2023 Production Estimates
As noted in the table above, Matador expects its average daily total production to decrease 10% sequentially from 111,700 BOE per day in the fourth quarter of 2022 to approximately 101,000 BOE per day in the first quarter of 2023. The Company’s first quarter 2023 production volumes have been impacted by several factors that have deferred portions of its anticipated first quarter production to the second quarter of 2023, including (i) production shut-in on 17 wells in the Rodney Robinson leasehold while the Company conducts hydraulic fracturing operations on nine new wells, including incremental shut-ins originally anticipated in the fourth quarter of 2022 that were deferred to the first quarter of 2023; and (ii) more wells than originally anticipated being shut-in across our other asset areas while offset operators conduct hydraulic fracturing operations adjacent to our properties. Another circumstance impacting production in the first quarter of 2023 is the fact that the 24 gross (15.4 net) operated horizontal wells turned to sales in the fourth quarter of 2022 had an average working interest of 64%, as compared to an average working interest of 88% for operated horizontal wells turned to sales in the first nine months of 2022. As a result of these factors, the wells turned to sales during the fourth quarter of 2022 are expected to be less impactful to net production in the first quarter of 2023 than otherwise would be expected with higher interest wells. In addition, most of the operated wells Matador expects to turn to sales in the first quarter of 2023, including all eight Rodney Robinson wells, are not expected online until the latter half of the quarter and will not fully contribute to production in the first quarter.
Matador anticipates its second quarter 2023 average daily total production to increase sequentially by 16 to 18%, as compared to the first quarter of 2023, with average daily oil production anticipated to increase by 25 to 26%. This significant sequential increase is primarily attributable to the anticipated closing of the Advance acquisition in the second quarter. Any delays in the anticipated closing date could result in less production recorded in the second quarter of 2023 than currently forecasted. Matador’s production estimates for 2023 only include production from the Advance properties following closing of the acquisition, which is expected to occur in the second quarter of 2023, because any production revenues from the Advance assets prior to the closing date will be part of the purchase price adjustment at closing.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Matador Resources (MTDR) Q4 Results - Feb 21
I'm ok with that. Prices will be higher later on anyways.
just listened to the call. they will redirect capital to newly acquired Advance to get to held by production.
The opening today was overdone. I bought it near the lows. thank you very much!
just listened to the call. they will redirect capital to newly acquired Advance to get to held by production.
The opening today was overdone. I bought it near the lows. thank you very much!