At the time of this post PR was trading for $10.56.
I have updated my forecast/valuation model for the Company's outstanding Q4 2022 results and fresh guidance for 2023 (that looks very conservative to me based on their recent well results). My valuation increased by $2.25 to $16.25/share.
PR is a recent addition to our Sweet 16 Growth Portfolio.
> It is everything I look for in a "Growth + Income" stock: strong balance sheet, lots of running room in very high-quality leasehold with double digit annual production growth that will be funded entirely by operating cash flow.
> My model assumes only 10% annual production growth after 2023, which is likely to be very conservative.
> 2022 results: $1.32 EPS with $2.38 operating cash flow per share.
> 2023 forecast: 72% YOY production growth that delivers $1.81 EPS and $3.79 operating cash flow per share.
> By mid-2023 they should announce an aggressive stock buyback that the Wall Street Gang will love and a fixed + variable dividend program.
TipRanks: "In the last 3 months, 7 ranked analysts set 12-month price targets for PR. The average price target among the analysts is $13.43. The 7 price targets range from $13 to $15." < Only one has been updated since they announced Q4 results.
Permian Resources (PR) Valuation Update - Feb 23
Permian Resources (PR) Valuation Update - Feb 23
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group
Re: Permian Resources (PR) Valuation Update - Feb 23
Note from Neal Dingmann at Truist Financial 2-24-2023
Permian Resources Corporation (PR, $10.57, Buy) - Boots
on the Ground Generating More than Just Strong Ground Game
- Permian Resources continues to demonstrate outstanding
operations with their results and future plans improving both
quarters since going public. The company recently topped
4Q22 production by 9%, while keeping their 10% 4Q-to-4Q exit
expectation, leading to much higher FY23 year-end production
target. Further, PR maintained its solid shareholder return with
the first material payout coming soon. While a large portion of
restricted shares will become freely tradeable starting March 1,
we believe there will likely be minimal near-term sales. We are
increasing our Price Target to $16 from $15. - Neal Dingmann
Permian Resources Corporation (PR, $10.57, Buy) - Boots
on the Ground Generating More than Just Strong Ground Game
- Permian Resources continues to demonstrate outstanding
operations with their results and future plans improving both
quarters since going public. The company recently topped
4Q22 production by 9%, while keeping their 10% 4Q-to-4Q exit
expectation, leading to much higher FY23 year-end production
target. Further, PR maintained its solid shareholder return with
the first material payout coming soon. While a large portion of
restricted shares will become freely tradeable starting March 1,
we believe there will likely be minimal near-term sales. We are
increasing our Price Target to $16 from $15. - Neal Dingmann
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
Energy Prospectus Group