Sweet 16 Update - Feb 25

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dan_s
Posts: 34470
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Sweet 16 Update - Feb 25

Post by dan_s »

The Sweet 16 had a very good day on Friday and the portfolio gained 5.4% during the week ending February 24th, but it is still down 1.53% year-to-date.
The S&P 500 Index lost 2.84% during the week, which featured more "Fear of the Fed". The index is still up 3.4% YTD, but the equity market will struggle as long as the Fed keeps tightening.

Permian Resources (PR) has bolted to the top of the leaderboard, gaining 13.3% during the week and it is now up 17.02% YTD. The Company announced very strong Q4 results and their 2023 guidance is sure to draw a lot more attention from the Wall Street Gang. PR looks a lot like Diamondback Energy (FANG) did five years ago. FANG closed at $142.38 on Friday.

Range Resource (RRC) is up 12.95% YTD moving into 2nd place thanks to the rumor that PXD was going to buy the company. PXD deigned the rumor on Saturday morning, so RRC will give up a lot of Friday's gain on Monday, but the rumor is sure to draw more attention to RRC. Range will be announcing strong Q4 results on Monday after the markets close. If natural gas prices can drift back over $3.00, all of our gassers will enjoy another very profitable year.

Now that APR23 is the front month NYMEX futures contract the ratio of Buyers to Sellers should rebalance. $2.50 is simply not the "Right Price" for U.S. natural gas. The Paper Traders got caught with too many long positions in FEB23 and MAR23. The utilities and LNG exporters will be back in the futures market in a few weeks.

AR, OVV, SBOW and SM are all down more than 10% YTD, but there is nothing wrong with the companies themselves. Q4 results were solid and they are all free cash flow positive.

I am working on the newsletter this weekend and I hope to publish it on Tuesday morning. There is just a mountain of new information to digest.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
dan_s
Posts: 34470
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Sweet 16 Update - Feb 25

Post by dan_s »

Big change in the weather pattern coming early in March. Watch the Saturday Summary: https://www.weatherbell.com/premium/

If Joe's prediction that we will see a repeat of the March & April weather of 2018 it will be very bullish for natural gas prices. In 2018 we had draws from storage the first three weeks of April.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
knusser58
Posts: 63
Joined: Wed Feb 22, 2023 7:39 am

Re: Sweet 16 Update - Feb 25

Post by knusser58 »

Hi Dan,
the sweet 16 Summary Spreadsheet is not uploaded yet.
Regards,
Klaus
dan_s
Posts: 34470
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: Sweet 16 Update - Feb 25

Post by dan_s »

You can view it directly from the home page and most recent summary is always under the Sweet 16 tab.

No podcast this weekend since I am trying to finish the newsletter.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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