Earthstone Energy (ESTE) Valuation Update - Mar 9

tlengoc
Posts: 69
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:38 pm

Re: Earthstone Energy (ESTE) Valuation Update - Mar 9

Post by tlengoc »

I believe the price of oil is going much higher. At least to $100.00 per barrel this year. Maybe even $115 by Q4 2023. I don't know about natgas yet but it could be explosive to the upside too.
ChuckGeb
Posts: 945
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 2:46 pm

Re: Earthstone Energy (ESTE) Valuation Update - Mar 9

Post by ChuckGeb »

What do you see to be the catalyst for the higher prices?
Fraser921
Posts: 2954
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:48 am

Re: Earthstone Energy (ESTE) Valuation Update - Mar 9

Post by Fraser921 »

A guy named Brandon.

He could of partially refilled in mid 60's a week ago, but I think his check will bounce. North of $ 70 today. My gut say's 100 too.

At 70 , crude is a 1.66 a gallon. A gallon of water at the supermarket costs more than that
tlengoc
Posts: 69
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:38 pm

Re: Earthstone Energy (ESTE) Valuation Update - Mar 9

Post by tlengoc »

ChuckGeb wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 6:12 am What do you see to be the catalyst for the higher prices?
Catalysts:

Forecasts of extremely hot summer.

The driving season starting after the Memorial Day Weekend.

Demand for Jet fuel and other petroleum products.

Understated world oil production and supply.

Saudi Arabia selling their oil to the West at much higher prices (they are no sanctions against them ==> so there is no price cap on their oil exports) but they are importing discounted Russian oil for their domestic market.

China did the same but the it was for NG. They bought NG cheap and resold it to the Europeans at huge multiples. While getting discounted Russian oil and NG.

Possible oil embargo on the West.

Possible China special operations vs Taiwan

Ukraine War will be over by the summer.

I saw a technical chart for oil to possible reach $265.ish but I don't know the time frame for that to happen.
ChuckGeb
Posts: 945
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 2:46 pm

Re: Earthstone Energy (ESTE) Valuation Update - Mar 9

Post by ChuckGeb »

I appreciate your sharing you thoughts. I hope you are right! A lot of 'risk off" right now with unstable economic conditions much of it based upon high level of fear. Hopefully the fear is overdone. A lot of cash liquidity waiting for a new home or relocation of capital. Where will it all go when the memo goes out? I don't think it is going to be tech stocks or banks. I think we have not seen the bottom yet. Tread carefully but there certainly are opportunities. remember Warren's thesis on making buys, but when others are paralyzed in fear (or something like that). Best of luck and thanks for sharing.
tlengoc
Posts: 69
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:38 pm

Re: Earthstone Energy (ESTE) Valuation Update - Mar 9

Post by tlengoc »

ChuckGeb wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 9:21 am I appreciate your sharing you thoughts. I hope you are right! A lot of 'risk off" right now with unstable economic conditions much of it based upon high level of fear. Hopefully the fear is overdone. A lot of cash liquidity waiting for a new home or relocation of capital. Where will it all go when the memo goes out? I don't think it is going to be tech stocks or banks. I think we have not seen the bottom yet. Tread carefully but there certainly are opportunities. remember Warren's thesis on making buys, but when others are paralyzed in fear (or something like that). Best of luck and thanks for sharing.
I also forgot to add the re-opening of China.

Here's a tidbit from Josh Young on twitter:

https://twitter.com/Josh_Young_1/status/1638549527287287810?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjcw%3D%3D&refsrc=email
tlengoc
Posts: 69
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:38 pm

Re: Earthstone Energy (ESTE) Valuation Update - Mar 9

Post by tlengoc »

ChuckGeb wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 9:21 am I appreciate your sharing you thoughts. I hope you are right! A lot of 'risk off" right now with unstable economic conditions much of it based upon high level of fear. Hopefully the fear is overdone. A lot of cash liquidity waiting for a new home or relocation of capital. Where will it all go when the memo goes out? I don't think it is going to be tech stocks or banks. I think we have not seen the bottom yet. Tread carefully but there certainly are opportunities. remember Warren's thesis on making buys, but when others are paralyzed in fear (or something like that). Best of luck and thanks for sharing.

There's also this:

https://twitter.com/HFI_Research/status/1638567212834521090?cn=ZmxleGlibGVfcmVjcw%3D%3D&refsrc=email
tlengoc
Posts: 69
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:38 pm

Re: Earthstone Energy (ESTE) Valuation Update - Mar 9

Post by tlengoc »

ChuckGeb wrote: Wed Mar 22, 2023 9:21 am I appreciate your sharing you thoughts. I hope you are right! A lot of 'risk off" right now with unstable economic conditions much of it based upon high level of fear. Hopefully the fear is overdone. A lot of cash liquidity waiting for a new home or relocation of capital. Where will it all go when the memo goes out? I don't think it is going to be tech stocks or banks. I think we have not seen the bottom yet. Tread carefully but there certainly are opportunities. remember Warren's thesis on making buys, but when others are paralyzed in fear (or something like that). Best of luck and thanks for sharing.
Hong Kong removes all travel restrictions.

https://www.coronavirus.gov.hk/eng/inbound-travel.html
ChuckGeb
Posts: 945
Joined: Thu Nov 21, 2013 2:46 pm

Re: Earthstone Energy (ESTE) Valuation Update - Mar 9

Post by ChuckGeb »

Good info. I am sticking with the thesis that a lot of choppy water still ahead. Took some very nice gains today to trim down to my hunker down portfolio. Plenty of opportunity ahead to get back in at better prices. I'll bet Warren wasn't buying today.

I bought some EPD and MMP today on the thesis I gained this weekend that both of these have their long term capital needs locked in at long term low interest rates and their distributions should be safe and growing going forward. Nice safe yield right now.

Note tankers sold off today based upon fear of higher oil prices moving global recession forward. What do those traders know?

It is hard for me to stay disciplined but so far I have stuck to my convictions. I have enough skin in the game to be happy either way.

You have to ask yourself something about the much welcomed "China reopening": When the biggest market for China being the US consumers are maxed out on credit cards, could that be a concern or is their military buildup and making friends everywhere BJ has left a world leadership vacuum going to propel their economy forward in the way perceived by so many?

Oil gas and metals are good bets right now.

Best of luck.
tlengoc
Posts: 69
Joined: Thu Feb 23, 2023 1:38 pm

Re: Earthstone Energy (ESTE) Valuation Update - Mar 9

Post by tlengoc »

ChuckGeb wrote: Mon Apr 03, 2023 3:48 pm Good info. I am sticking with the thesis that a lot of choppy water still ahead. Took some very nice gains today to trim down to my hunker down portfolio. Plenty of opportunity ahead to get back in at better prices. I'll bet Warren wasn't buying today.

I bought some EPD and MMP today on the thesis I gained this weekend that both of these have their long term capital needs locked in at long term low interest rates and their distributions should be safe and growing going forward. Nice safe yield right now.

Note tankers sold off today based upon fear of higher oil prices moving global recession forward. What do those traders know?

It is hard for me to stay disciplined but so far I have stuck to my convictions. I have enough skin in the game to be happy either way.

You have to ask yourself something about the much welcomed "China reopening": When the biggest market for China being the US consumers are maxed out on credit cards, could that be a concern or is their military buildup and making friends everywhere BJ has left a world leadership vacuum going to propel their economy forward in the way perceived by so many?

Oil gas and metals are good bets right now.

Best of luck.
Besides China and Hong Kong re-opening I would also add that the Asian block will most likely do the same. Countries like Vietnam, Singapore, Malaysia, just to name a few.

Also Japan is buying oil from Russia. More de-dollarization of the Greenback/PetroDollar and the trend of all countries reverting back to their sovereign currencies. What If Germany goes back to the Deutsche Mark and buys Russian Oil too.
Post Reply