EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Mar 23

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dan_s
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Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

EIA - Natural Gas Storage Report - Mar 23

Post by dan_s »

Working gas in storage was 1,900 Bcf as of Friday, March 17, 2023, according to EIA estimates.
This represents a net decrease of 72 Bcf from the previous week.
Stocks were 504 Bcf higher than last year at this time and 351 Bcf above the five-year average of 1,549 Bcf.
At 1,900 Bcf, total working gas is within the five-year historical range.

My WAG is that natural gas in storage will move another 100 Bcf closer to the 5-year average over the next two weeks, ending the "official" winter heating season at 1,800 Bcf. That will be 251 Bcf over the 5-year average, but well within the range of the last five years.

There is not a glut of natural gas in the U.S. market.

Colder than normal weather will extend into April this year and I expect another 50 to 100 Bcf to be knocked off the "surplus" to the 5-year average by the end of April.

The most bullish weather for natural gas demand will be a shift from colder than normal to warmer than normal in May.

Industrial demand for natural gas and LNG exports are expected to remain strong.

The ngas futures contract for DEC23 closed at $3.78 on March 24. I expect it to move over $4.00 this summer.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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