NG glut

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Fraser921
Posts: 2953
Joined: Mon Mar 22, 2021 11:48 am

NG glut

Post by Fraser921 »

https://www.celsiusenergy.net/p/current-natural-gas-inventories.html

https://www.celsiusenergy.net/

1853 -10 from celsius forescast

1 more draw forecast of -20 forecasted EOS 1833 WOW

VERY VERY BAD for the gassers CRK to be single digits soon

These guys are cash flow negative. What multiple should I put on a negative numbers 5 x, 4 x, 3 x

I suggest taking ebitda , subtracting interest expense and cap ex to get to FCF..do not buy if its negative

Have a nice day!
dan_s
Posts: 34463
Joined: Fri Apr 23, 2010 8:22 am

Re: NG glut

Post by dan_s »

CRK and all of the gassers will be cutting back on well completions this year. They can easily live within operating cash flow, which should be over $800 million this year ($2.91 per share).

Since the U.S. natural gas market is HUGE (over 37 Trillion cubic feet per year) the upstream companies can easily adjust their capex programs to work off the small surplus we have in storage. 321 Bcf / 37,000 Bcf is just 0.87% of the total U.S. natural gas market.

In addition to fewer well completions, the utility companies will do more coal-to-gas fuel switching for electricity generation this year.

The work "glut" is overused in this sector quite a bit.
Dan Steffens
Energy Prospectus Group
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