Raymond James Q1 2023 ReCap - May 12

[dan_s]

Raymond James' Energy Sector research team sent me a recap of how the upstream companies that they follow closely did in Q1 2023.

Send me an email ( dmsteffens@comcast.net ) if you'd like to read the full report.

Here is summary of it:

The first quarter of 2023 came out a little choppier than we anticipated, and decidely more mixed results than historical 1Qs would suggest given guidance is usually announced 2/3rds of the way through the first quarter. Although our coverage largely managed beats, the prior year (1Q22) was far better seeing 100% in-line/beat on capex and 90% beat on EBITDA compared to 75% and 80% for this quarter. Outlooks remained mostly positive, with the first inklings of easing costs coming into view. Unfortunately the index couldn’t overcome the dip in crude prices, sliding 7% over the course of earnings season.

We will take a look at two themes from this earnings season: 1) As mentioned earlier we are starting to see glimpses of easing inflationary pressures, but the overall capex picture coming out of the quarter was somewhat foggy, with many companies 2Q capex expectations coming in higher than expected, 2) gassy E&Ps continue to outperform our expectations and even the E&P index despite a major dip in nat gas price. As always, we’ll highlight our biggest winners and losers from 1Q and provide a detailed beat/miss tracker for our coverage on the major quarterly items (production, capex, EBITDA, etc.) for each of our respective E&Ps.
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All of our Sweet 16 companies delivered solid Q1 results, with most of them beating my forecasts.