U.S. Oil production is not going to bounce back - June 12

[dan_s]

Bloomberg on June 9:

The Permian Basin, the growth engine for US shale, may see more moderate growth than previously forecast as
drillers gobble each other up in the oil patch.

Tudor Pickering Holt & Co. cut its forecast for oil production growth by 14% for next year and 7% for 2025. The
lower growth views are due to “a combination of recent crude oil headwinds and upstream consolidation” that
have weighed on drilling, particularly by closely held explorers, Colton Bean, an analyst at the Houston-based
bank, wrote Friday in a note to investors.

As nearly all other US shale basins hold steady or lose output in the coming years, the Permian Basin is expected
to add the equivalent of Iran’s total output by 2030. However, confidence the basin will reach such heights in
that time frame is waning as publicly traded oil companies buy out their closely held peers and slash activity.
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MY TAKE: Outside of the Permian Basin, all other U.S. oil basins are on decline. The "paradigm" that the shale boom in the Permian Basin will continue for many years is a "False Paradigm". EVERY OILFIELD EVER DISCOVERED goes on decline once most of the Tier One drilling locations go on decline. Lower quality development drilling locations cannot keep up with the decline. U.S. oil production is not getting back to pre-pandemic levels (~13 million barrels per day) this year and maybe not next year. There is a chance it can get a bit higher before 2030 if D&C programs are increased significantly.

I have a more detailed analysis of this topic by Goehring & Rozencwajg dated 5-31-2023.
If you'd like to read it, send an email to me at dmsteffens@comcast.net

[Fraser921]

Iran is shipping more oil despite what Team Biden says.
Russia is shipping all they can.
and the Fed is hellbent in causing a recession
Crude is getting crushed today.